Monday, February 01, 2010

The dangerous word..."likely"....

The definition of the word "likely" from the Merriam-Webster online dictionary...
Main Entry: 1like·ly
Pronunciation: \ˈlī-klē\
Function: adjective
Inflected Form(s): like·li·er; like·li·est
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English gelīclic fitting (from gelīc like) and Old Norse glīkligr, līkligr, from glīkr like; akin to Old English gelīc
Date: 14th century
1 : having a high probability of occurring or being true : very probable
2 : apparently qualified : suitable

The word likely is very dangerous when spoken by a noted military analyst.  Mike over at New Wars has a post about the Navy's shipbuilding.  The entire article is worth reading but this passage caught my attention.

…Many of you have no doubt heard the hottest shipbuilding rumor spawned by the QDR process — that the number of
aircraft carriers will be cut from eleven to ten, or even nine. It is true that we are headed down to ten in 2013 because of the time-gap between when Enterprise retires and the first Ford-class carrier joins the fleet, but that is a temporary situation.

Although the Navy could meet current warfighting requirements with one or two less carriers, a permanent cut wouldn’t be prudent for two reasons…

–  First, warfighting needs are likely to change in the future.

–  Second, wartime attrition is likely to occur in the future.

So it makes little sense to cut the number of carriers to the absolute minimum currently required, and the Navy’s 2011 shipbuilding plan will call for maintaining eleven flattops through 2040.

Wartime attrition is likely?
That's a disturbing thought.  We haven't lost an aircraft carrier since WW2.  Either he's making some seriously irresponsible guesses in front of a Congressional Committee or we're not being told of some extremely serious vulnerabilities present in our current force structure.  The idea that a carrier could be lost to enemy action is beyond stunning.  Its down right spooky.  If a ship with over 4,000 sailors can be lost that indicates that every other ship in the fleet is vulnerable.  I hope to hear or read more on Thompson's thinking.

No more HUMVEE's?

Christian at Defense Tech has an article discussing the end of the Humvee.  This is the operative paragraph, follow the link for the whole story...

UPDATE: Army budget officials Lt. Gen. Adgar Stanton said at the breakout that “we reached the end of the line with the Humvee a sooner than we expected.” Fewer losses in Iraq and Afghanistan and the introduction of the M-​​ATV makes for “fewer uses for the Humvee.” 

But what I found interesting is that the Marines have a different take on this situation.  Read these to understand what I mean... 
Top Marine asks: Is JLTV worth buying? 
U.S. Marines May Not Wait For JLTV 
Humvees could get V-shaped hulls

It would appear that this is worth watching. 



Gates fires a Marine General when an Air Force puke put him in a hole?  Pitiful.

Missile Defense Test...

Remember the floating X-band radar "ship"???  Well looks like another piece of hardware failed on it and they're blaming it for a bad missile test.

A reminder...

With the QDR and the budget coming out today, its time to look back at a couple of  posts written in 2009 over at the USNI blog...For all the critics of amphibious warfare---for all those who in error point out that amphibious operations have no place in todays world---for all those who seek to cut amphibs, force the USMC into becoming a second land army, these posts should prove eye opening...


If you've been wondering like I have about the LAV-25-A2 and what makes it different well your answer is here.  I finally laid my hands on the vehicle brochure and to be honest it looks like an extremely modest update of the vehicle.  Nothing earth shattering, nothing revolutionary...heck even its evolutionary credentials might be questioned.  This is (in my opinion) more like a vehicle reset. 
LAV_A2 DataSheetFA_FinalPrf                                                    
A warrior should be able to...                                                           

EFV does live...told ya....

Well it did take a 50 million dollar haircut in the latest budget but all things considered....that ain't Shiite.)) Full story over at