Sunday, April 03, 2011

Its time.



Time for a bit of unfortunate truth telling.  Europe is in decline and is no longer worthy of defense discussion as a whole.  Certain countries are maintaining robust capabilities, developing them etc...but as a pseudo-nation state, Europe is unworthy of discussion as a military power.

Roll Call.

England is no longer worthy of discussion.  They have destroyed their own forces in a way that no enemy could.

Germany is a non player in defense matters.  They maintain a strong industrial base solely for the opportunity to export weaponry.  A pacifist, isolationist strain exists to such an extent that they are the European version of what Japan once was.

Italy is worthy of discussion.  Besides maintaining strong naval forces, they have proven that they have the will and the means to exercise force.

Spain.  Ditto.

Romania is definitely worthy of discussion.  They are an example of "new" Europe and probably represent the saving grace of the continent.  Romania, along with the rest of the former Soviet Union satellite nations still possess a strong view when it comes to national security.  It is tinged with a big dose of practicality.  Once economic conditions improve expect these nations to shoulder the burden of the defense of Europe.

The Netherlands and the rest of the Nordic Nations.  Worthy.  They maintain strong forces that punch well above their weight.  Again, economic conditions will determine exactly how robust those forces will be in the future.  They do bear watching though.

NATO is dead.  This Libyan Conflict has shown that it is an institution that is out of balance and is not composed of equals.  Time to "hold it underwater till its feet stop moving".  The US gains no benefit from this alliance.

A favorite European past time is to discuss the demise of the United States.  Time they looked in the mirror.  It appears that not only has the US shouldered the burden of the defense of the West, but we also saved most of Europe's Banks during the economic meltdown.

23 comments :

  1. Although I've read some news on the decline of the "US Empire" on Spanish papers, I've received FAR more such ideas from the US. From TEOTWAWKI pamphlets to brainish articles, SF novels... you name it.

    Also, a good chunk of US military would seem to think that Spain is NOT willing to use strength --likewise, the opinion of those in uniform here about politicos and flags is... stronger than what transpires from both the US and UK; of course, we are Latin, but...--.

    Take care.

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  2. i think we should also mention Poland, they are growing economically and militarily, gave a good force in Iraq and have close ties to US Military. their geographic position makes them a non-player in Libya but along with other eastern bloc countries should be a strong players in European defense.

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  3. JP.

    good point on Poland. but again, i kinda lumped them in with the other former Soviet Union satellites.

    Shugyosha.

    let me have you ponder this. what you're seeing in the US is a clash between psuedo European cultures on the East and West coast with a more traditional US culture in the center of the nation and the South.

    Americans are voting with their feet and leaving those places in droves. California reported negative growth for the 5th straight year when it came to citizens. only illegal immigration gives it any growth at all. on the east coast, only DC is experiencing growth.

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  4. Yes, I can see the clash. However, for example, both TEOTWAKI and SF folks have a strong midwest presence. My main TEO... source is as traditional as you can get.

    Anyhow, your post is right. Just that, from here, I see more doom&gloom from the States than European born. Then, again, "Spain is different" [sigh].

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  5. whats going on in Spain? i thought you guys were pretty similar to the South and Midwest in thinking...and again, i was under the belief that it was a small cadre of greedy pigs that helped bring about your troubles just like we had here.

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  6. I think your post shows a great lack of knowledge of european affairs Solomon ! European policies are not those advocated in the US, as far from them as a Californian "liberal" thinker is far from a Bible Belt neo-con thinker, and we do not have a united nation made of states like the USA are (and this is largely thanks to the UK's efforts, the same country that's crumbling under the weight of it's mismanagement). You say our banks were saved with US money, which is mainly untrue, and forget that the economic meltdown mainly came from insane US buisness practices in the bank sector, especially on loan policies : the first banks to fail were yours...
    We don't see war as an option anymore, in that we are "post-modern" as say the philosophers, and even actions like those in Lybia are mainly due to the interests of a happy few to 1) hide their relationship with Khadafi (see France's Sarkozy's AT missiles sales or Italy's Berlusconi's contracts...) 2) show of their military hardware (with, it should be said, Rafale on the news every day, from carriers or airbases, with AG and AA load-outs, and sometimes a Typhoon showing up in AA only missions...) 3) gain "we don't support tyrants" good points from their opinions because elections are close (with the positions of Germany's Merkel leading to huge electoral defeats for her). Romania is a country facing widespread poverty and corruption, as is Bulgaria, while Hungary as gone fascist. Portugal and Greece are being revitalised by chinese money while public sector spendings are massively cut, and Spain's not far from there with an economy so far gone that native spanish people are now taking jobs that were previously given to south-american and marrocan migrants. My own contry has'nt had an official governement for almost a year (yeah, we voted in june 2010 after the governement resigned in april and negociations are still ongoing to form a new governement...). And while the US make up for about 45 to 50% of the world defense spendings the biggest european spenders represent between 3 and 4% each... the combined european spending is less than half the US defense spendings, without the kind of rationalization brought by a single united common military like the one you got in the US. Yet we have ships, we have planes, we have marines, we do act all around the world like the US do but without being broke with a huge part of our governemental spendings going to the military. Look at France : currently the most active country in Lybia with the US, fighting in Afghanistan, evacuating foreigners and protecting civilians in Ivory Coast, maintaining forces in the EAU against Iran, leading a major role in the Atalanta european anti-somalian pirates force, keeping forces in Tchad in both humanitary missions next to Darfur and regular peacekeeping missions inside the country, plus it's missions in the Pacific and in the Caribean (where it does anti-drug missions) with much, much less peoples, material and money than the US but with a lot of success everywhere.
    Spending big or going around with the biggest stick isn't what makes a true power, it's the art of using one's ressources the most effectively. Alexander had a much smaller army than Xerxes and yet he took over the Persian Empire, and the same was true for Caesar's armies in Gaul...

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  7. interesting.

    i take it that you believe that a true European Union is essential to the future of Europe?

    i also take it that you believe that despite the decrease in defense spending even more is necessary?

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  8. Soloman, i dont think theres a pseudo-European culture on the east coast and more traditional american in the south and midwest, with due respect thats demeaning to those who live on those coasts. i have lived in the south, east and west coast and while definately different theres no real american culture, more a jar of marbles of different colors. cant make distinctions about quality.

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  9. it might be insulting but i really believe that to be the case. think about how differently life is for those living in the Washington D.C. New York super metroplex as compared to those who live in Alabama, Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi.

    the same applies to those who live out in California along the coast...LA, San Diego, San Francisco as compared to those who live inland from them in Riverside Country. or even Arizona.

    there is a culture divide and if you look carefully you'll see the coasts adopting laws that a person from Europe could easily identify with...while that same person if they were to travel toward the center of the country would become increasingly paranoid and confused.

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  10. well yes they may live differently or have different values but doesnt make them any more or less american. i have never liked the term value voter since everyone votes their values, and its not so much the coasts i think as urban vs. rural, and also generational trends as well. i do understand your view but i think its much deeper than that and having citizenship on the east or west coast doesnt make one less american as someone who lives in the midwest.

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  11. Oh noes!!! Solomon tells it how it is. Prepare to get hammered.

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  12. while i respect sol he has his opinion and i have mine, thats what free speech is all about! just because we disagree doesnt mean someone has to get hammered (i think Charlie Sheen is doing more than enough for America today) nor does it mean you cant have respect for someone. something our government should learn, disagreement doesn't mean disrespect. Sol has served his country honorably and for that he will always have my respect, just not sharing of opinions :)

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  13. Great Britain: ...'s armed forces will need some time to recover. But post-2020 they are going be on par with France.

    Germany: ... is actually a player in defence and security matters, however German politicians only understand the military as some sort of diplomatic and domestic politics poker-chip.

    Italy: ... just like any other European state is reducing its forces.

    Spain: See above.

    Romania: ... has still not modernized its forces up to Western European standards. Besides that Romania has more pressing issues than defence, as they are still struggling with corruption, a slowly recovering economy, ... .

    The Netherlands: Afghanistan has pretty much wrecked the Dutch. They'll need quite some time to recover, heck, they are even thinking about axing their armoured forces. (Also, the Netherlands are not a Nordic country.)

    NATO isn't dead. It provides the US with safe bases close to Africa and the Middle East, and control of the North Atlantic cean and the Mediterranean Sea. No NATO, no air bases, no naval bases, no forward basing of brigades.

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  14. Lets take your points backwards Franks...

    *forward basing of forces on land anyway, is dead. few people realize it but the whole idea behind the Stryker Brigades was to give the US Army a medium weight air transportable armored force. even back in 1999, the US Army was well aware that the pressure to pull bases out of Europe was growing. once this latest round of foolishness is over, it'll grow. how can you justify closing another base in the US when we have mega bases in Europe.

    *NATO is indeed dead. what advantage does the US gain from it? we don't need it and many don't want it (myself included) as far as giving us access to the North Atlantic...really? really? say that out loud and then look at just our submarine force. there isn't a nation on this planet that can deny us access to the N. Atlantic....forward bases to Africa and the Middle East? Why do we need them? and if we do why do we need the framework of NATO to gain fly through rights? your argument sucks.

    *your analysis of European countries? ok, whatever but i stick by my contention that militarily Europe is a has been.

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  15. US bases in Europe are rather small compared to the 10-20k military cities in the US. In 1999 the US still had a whole corps stationed in Europe, of course you no longer need such a large, mechanised formation over here. But light and medium formations can be much more easily airlifted into theatre if they're in Europe (Africa, Middle East) or East Asia (Southeast Asia, Central Asia) rather than the continental United States. Even the US Air Force with its hundreds of heavy airlifters would be hard pressed airlifting and supplying an entire medium brigade plus support forces by air.

    I didn't write "access", but control. Only NATO ensures control over the North Atlantic. Even during the Cold War the US Navy guarding the vital lines of communications between the two continents was more important than all the US Army units stationed in Central Europe. And its even more important now and in the foreseeable future.

    In conclusion, the US gains safe bases and training areas close to Africa and the Middle East and control over the North Atlantic.

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  16. The Atlantic comment is bunk.

    Do you really the need the NATO framework to maintain use of a key AF base in Germany or elsewhere? I'm sure the Germans would let us use it to maintain the local economy.

    Last I heard, some NATO countries still have not fulfilled trainer obligation. Libya speaks for itself where we bear the burden of 90% of the air operation.

    We will be having this conversation again (with the rest of the American public)when the U.S. eventually buckles under its collective debt, and won't have the benefit of maintaining military alliances that are a relic of the Cold War.

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  17. Soloman, well europes military is only weak because it has no enemies! they dont see the threats from terrorists like we do, they dont have to keep major forces externally, so i think you see eastern europe having good militaries because they are afraid of Russia and her remaining allies, but western europe is surrounded by friends, the only thing that threatens them is bad wine!

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  18. Jp, admirable though the militaries of eastern Europe are, you do realise they are dwarfed by those of the west? Try wiki-ing the Royal Navy and the Polish navy and compare the two as an example.

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  19. The Swedish military is no exception. It is only the Air force that can claim some sort of readiness, but the NATO adaptation, the unlimited spending on the Nordic battle group and the constant cuts in the budget takes a hard toll on the force.
    Oh, and the Marine is in an ok shape I guess, there are not as many subs as needed, but it is not a total disaster. Army…

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  20. my apologies, the United Kingdom

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  21. well i make no apologies for seeing that the Romanians who are doing an admirable job of upgrading and in some cases making tough economic choices with procurement are facing some old Europe bias and upturned noses.

    they didn't have the advantages of having a modern cousin country like the E. Germans to depend on. to be quite honest 'the old western' European countries have been quite short with aid to those nations and they're suffering under economic conditions that they didn't do a thing to contribute to.

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