Check out the article from the Daily Mail...but as always a few tidbits...
The date is July 27, 2012, and in London the Olympic Games are about to begin. For months, the British people have been looking forward to the jamboree of patriotic enthusiasm.
But now that the day is here, the mood feels heavy with gloom. The crowds are thin, the drizzle pours down. The Union Flags hang forlornly in the dull breeze.
Even the nation's new Prime Minister, the blinking, stammering Ed Miliband, cuts a remarkably limp figure, a melancholy leader for a nation sunk in misery....
...Under the terms of the Strategic Defence and Security Review, the government had committed itself to scrapping the Harrier Jump Jets and decommissioning the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal, effectively hobbling its capacity to strike back against an Argentine invasion.Read the entire article...those are only two passages...but also read the comments section over at Think Defence.
In October 2010, Admiral Sir Sandy Woodward, the architect of victory in the South Atlantic in 1982, warned that a surprise attack would be 'highly likely to succeed'.
Thanks to the swingeing cuts, he insisted, the Argentines could take the islands 'with barely a shot being fired'.
But to their eternal shame, the Coalition ignored his warnings. And they even ignored an even more aggressive bout of sabre-rattling from Mrs Kirchner, who declared the following summer that Britain was merely a 'crude colonial power in decline'.
All this, however, was merely a taste of what was to come...
I continue to be amazed at the arrogance of opinion by some of the commenters. The idea that they could be under threat of having their islands attacked seems almost foreign to them. They deride the Argentinian military and have a vision of the Royal Navy from the '80's.
They ignore the draconian cuts forced on the Navy by the Royal Air Force and British Army. They still believe that they're a world power even though they're only willing to fund a Navy at the rate of a 1st rate Coast Guard.
Trouble is coming and those that are warning of the danger are being ignored and belittled. Neville Chamberlain would be proud.
Much of the commentary seems to focus on the assets available to both sides where I will suggest the most important item is the respective governments willingness to use them.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter if the British Typhoons are far more advanced than anything Argentina has if PM Cameron will not quickly give the order to engage when a planes filled with paras come over the horizon or when civilian ships loaded with marines arrive in Port Stanley.
The British are wracked with internal disagreements over their recent withdrawal from the EU stability plan, their economy is in poor straights, their armed forces gutted and their government kept in power between very different liberals and conservatives.
Are they able to make the time sensitive decisions to repel an Argentinian attack? Is PM Cameron willing to engage in a shooting war that many in his cabinet and constituency will not support?
I will suggest that the next few months are the best opportunity in decades for Argentina to take the Malvinas. And given that Argentina is led by someone who is playing the populist, demagogic song, who is in dire need of the petrochemical resources potentially below those waters...history teaches us what is likely to occur.
extremely well said!
ReplyDeletewhen Argentinian Para-Troopers land...followed by Marines, i think Cameron's government will collapse. I don't think they will be able to make any decisions and the islands will be retaken before they can get themselves sorted out.
another factor is that just like the US, the UK is tired of war. how are they going to surge forces into the Falklands when they're struggling to keep forces in Afghanistan?
you're also right about the window of opportunity. Sarkozy and the German Prime Minister are pissed. Argentina probably has ideal conditions until the end of next year. the financial crisis, the US presidential elections, the inevitable troubles in the Middle East (will Syria fall apart? what about Iraq) will have the world's plate at the brim. no one will care that the Argentinians reclaimed islands that they claim were taken by an empire long past its prime.
Sol, this is one time i really really hope you are wrong and this doesn't come to war, no reason people should die and the people of the Falklands submit to a govenrment it doest agree to and i agree militarily and politically UK wont be able to defend, but lets think of a counter scenario, yes Sarkozy and Merkel are pissed at the Cameron govt, but would the EU try to use a "european military" or so they claim with a small force and send a fleet down there to show european solidarity? the french could deploy the De Gaul, Italians have two harrier capable jets and they have several amphibs, i think the US would even send a carrier battle group but not ground troops, i could see if the Cameron govt collapsing the UK makes a deal with europe to lessen its objections with help of taking the islands back.
ReplyDeletea couple of things. the US is tired of war and additionally the current administration has already come out in support of Argentina.
ReplyDeleteas has been said, the EU is kinda pissed at the UK and they're dovish. they won't go to war over colonial possessions. thats not an EU mission set and i'm sure member nations would point that out. '
so long story short. the UK will have to stand alone on this and they might be facing an Argentina will allies...either participating or morally supporting.
Adding fuel to a possible fire the Argentinian senate today approved a measure for the government to control all newsprint.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/dyc4u57
Considering you mistook a screenshot from a game for a work of art, what makes you think you have any further credibility on...well, anything?
ReplyDeleteSol, if you don't take the EU as a whole, nations like France and Holland would be worried by the precedent set at South America deciding it can take back colonial possessions by force. A petty squabble (the likes of which are ALWAYS going on in Europe) wouldn't make the likes of France support an act of war against her closest neighbour and one of her closest allies.
ReplyDeletethe difference is that all of France's overseas possessions are happy with the arrangement and they aren't being claimed by another nation.
ReplyDeletethat is how this is different. this whole conflict smacks of another era. public perception in Europe will be a totally different issue that will see the UK on the losing end of it. add the finance mess to the equation and i just don't see the support coming.
you might be right but i just don't see it.
Sol,
ReplyDeleteJust my perspective, but the little squabbles in Europe tend to go away when one of our own gets threatened. The only nation that I think would be reasonably hostile to the UK in this situation is Spain, but they're not exactly in any position to lead EU thinking, being broke and fairly militarily insignificant.
Look at it this way, rather than acting like petulant little bitches, what if France and Germany see it as a chance to get the UK to play ball a little more in Europe (they still want us as strong EU partners despite the financial crisis and they know that the UK govt. gets unpopular for going along with the EU at all) and get the UK public on side by supporting us when we need it. That'd do them a whole lot more good than acting like children.
Sol, but the falkland islanders are happy with the arrangement now, they want to be subjects of the UK crown, what precedent would it set for them to be governed by a country that forcefully took it over, if argentina can do that, then china can take taiwan and have legitimacy.
ReplyDeletethe claim that the Brits have on those islands dates back to the colonial era. the Argentinians claims predate that. what does a few thousand people and their desires mean when measured against the masses in Argentina that demand their property back?
ReplyDeletenot taking sides but someone has to give the Argentinian perspective....afterall you just gave the British one.
well honestly i dont care about history at all, i believe that a government is only given by consent of the governed, and those being governed on the falklands want to stay apart of the UK, if they were wanting to be part of Argentina i would say Argentina should govern the islands, but the past is gone, i rather let the people who live there now decide.
ReplyDeleteso...if a couple of states here in the US decide that they don't like being ruled by the two coasts, can they leave? the government only rules by consent of the people, so the people in the middle of the US aren't as liberal as the people on the two coasts...can we leave the US??? i mean it is our choice right?
ReplyDeletewell if you ask the founders, yes, although separation would be detrimental to those states, but under the theory yes...but theres a small difference in that every state has representation at the federal level, two senators and house members (texas being one of the largest groups in the house), falklands dont have near that much power and no representation in the house of commons, so i am going off what i know from opinion polls, but if a state voted to leave, i think we should discuss nationally how to deal with that, i am not sure how that would happen but under the logic yes. Also they arent ruled by the coasts, you'd be surprised how much the heartland has influence in congress, hence the southern strategy of presidential elections, and the south and midwest will become even more powerful over the coming decades as demographics shift, so its temporary.
ReplyDeletei was being ludicrous to make a point. the determination of a local population whether on the city or state level always takes a back seat to national or international politics (meaning issues between nations..not regulations)
ReplyDeletei agree with you, i guess i was being more idealistic, and you was far more realistic, i didnt make as clear i should have. its interesting though, the EU parliament has so much power, but so little consent, just shows how my idealism fails in the real world.
ReplyDeleteInteresting post, it will be a good moment for Argentina but I doubt that they have the will to go to war.
ReplyDeleteTheir biter defeat on 1982 is still there. About europe I do not think they are willing to use any kind of
force to help UK, UK will be alone. South american countries will not do more of what they did in 1982,
if it happen it could not happen in a worse situation for the world economy....
Guys I would like to say Merry Christmas to Solomon, Joe, Grim and everybody making Snafu.
Have a good time with your families
Guillermo
you too Guillermo, and Merry Christmas to all on this list, and look forward to more conversations and complaining about F35 haters for another year :D
ReplyDelete