On October 26, 2006, a Chinese Song class submarine is said to have "popped up" and "surfaced within firing range of its torpedoes and missiles before being detected" within 5 nautical miles (9 km) of the carrier USS Kitty Hawk while she was operating in the Pacific Ocean
The series continues despite some catcalls from the cheap seats.
You would think that after a regiment of SU-27's and Fast Attack Missile Boats, that the carrier in our mythical exercise would begin to catch a break.
NOT GONNA HAPPEN!
In 2006 a Chinese Song Class Sub was able to pop up virtually in the center of a Carrier Battle Group. The stunning thing. She was undetected. This points to another weakness in the carrier force. The lack of a proper fast flying anti-sub asset. The Anti-Sub Helos do good work in restricted waters but over open ocean and a fast moving carrier force it becomes a bit of an issue. You say well no problem we have P-8's coming online and P-3's right? Well not so fast. They'll be searching for Boomers and attempting to sweep the area ahead of the fleet. Quiet diesel subs will still be an issue.
In this scenario they would seek to lay in wait and pop up for quick shots on the carrier group. The hope would be to cut reaction down to mere seconds...almost too quick for automatic systems to react, definitely too quick for the officers on the bridge to give the order to fire.
On a sidenote, the British experience in the Falklands must be taken into account too. Many have talked about decoys and what they would do to incoming missiles. The Brits found that decoyed missiles sometimes hit other ships in your task force. Additionally if the attack by the subs is timed to coincide with the attacks by the fighters and fast attack boats you can bump up the number of missiles going after our carrier in this mythical incident to 1200.
1200 missiles going after a carrier in a max effort attack. Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles still have to be included (I can tell you now I'm thinking at least 5 per carrier) and bombers and a few stealth aircraft.
This is gonna get good.