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| artist impression of the Chinese Type 081 LHD via China Military Review |
One power rises the other declines.
Friday, January 18, 2013
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Last year China has more satellite lunches than US. PLAN is running at least six major ship construction projects. It's just a matter of time when their battle fleet catches up and eventually passes ours. We as a country should lower our expectation when comes to defense. We can no longer act up as if we are 20 years ago. If we want to retain our global leadership, we have to work hard to earn it. Being #1 is not god given rights. If we can't fix our fiscal mess, rebuild a strong economy emphasizing on technology and manufacturing, we are destined to decline like any great powers before us. Military power without economic security is pure fantasy. Chinese spending on massive defense build-up like a shopaholic teenager simply because they can. They are sitting on big pile of cash with a huge industrial complex to back it up. We created a monster, for the moment it has all the mojo.
ReplyDeleteSo, we are facing some grim prospects:
ReplyDeleteThe US Navy sacrificed readiness and competency for platforms and the result is we are losing platforms because we cannot maintain them and don't have enough competent sailors, so we are seriously considering dropping back the number of platforms to match the number of sailors. Catch-22 manning policies.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130116/DEFREG02/301160019/Surface-Navy-Boss-Sounds-Readiness-Alarm?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|World%20News|s
Galrahn does make a compelling case, but as one the comments points out, you need sailors to run ships (Note to USN). Two-hundred new 5000-ton frigates would require 30,000 new sailors (assuming 150 sailors per ship). Even the Chinese can't just train that many sailors at once. The real scary thing would be if they added massive capacity to their schools and training facilities.
and we can't even do the LCS right. We, alone, couldn't afford to match the PLAN if it really put its mind to a massive building plan.
But if South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, AND the US were to commit to building 5000-ton frigates, it still wouldn't be enough but it would be a start.
There are a million different data points to look at, but no matter how you slice it China is getting its shit together. We aren't so much a declining power, it's just that the context of our superiority is changing. But before everyone get all wigged out over China's assertiveness, remember that we still live in a nearly-impenetrable geographical fortress with vast natural resources and a strong knowledge base. And over the next 20 years the whole picture will change again as we become one of the world's leading petroleum producers -- debt, the Middle East entanglement, Africa -- all that dissolves in the face of shifting energy-resource dominance. I feel that we'll see China involved in treasure-draining global resource-based conflicts as we are able to increasingly rely on domestic gifts from God and focus on our Beacon on the Hill mandate. So sure, they're getting big and bad ass, and sure they can lose ten thousand fighting age males a day and still have positive growth in the demographic. But they live in a fish tank, and no matter how thick their arms get as they reach out to grab what they need, we all know how it feels to have the planet hacking away at a nation's global reach.
ReplyDeleteFirst this news and now another failure on the F-35...
ReplyDeleteDamn you LM...we really need this aircraft to perform and now another failure...
This year is going to be be do or die for the JSF.I would just like to see the damn thing perform well and be on service before 2019...at this rate it is going to be killed by the budget cuts...and it will give the chinese more time to develop their 5th gen fighters...
yeah i just read that. quite honestly the news that it was grounded because of a mechanical failure doesn't bum me out at all. for me its all about the budget. the President wants to leave his stamp on the DoD and Hagel will help him do it. i'm telling anyone who will listen that this guy will try and make a splash by killing defense programs and the F-35 will get everyone's attention the quickest. you kill that program and everything else is just gonna be accepted once the wailing is over for the F-35 kill.
DeleteJust remember, its not Obama's fault. Never is.
ReplyDeleteObama pivots to Asia in an attempt to bottle up Chinese power was sure to evoke a reaction from the Chinese. Obama instigates a massive draw down of American power at the moment he slaps China with the pivot. It's not Obama's fault that the Chinese don't thank him for it.