The wrong force for a future Asian conflict.

Thanks for the article Jonathan.

via Janes.

Asian powers are outpacing the United States to become the biggest spenders on defense by 2021 and are fuelling an “explosion” in the global arms trade, a study showed.
The global arms trade jumped by 30 percent to $73.5 billion between 2008-2012 in spite of the economic downturn, driven by surging exports from China and demand from countries like India, and is set to more than double by 2020, defense and security consultancy IHS Jane’s said and was reported by Reuters.
“Budgets are shifting East and global arms trade is increasing competition. This is the biggest explosion in trade the world has ever seen,” said Paul Burton, a senior manager at IHS Jane’s whose study looked at 34,000 defense acquisition programmes.
The United States has accounted for the lion’s share of global defense spending over the past decade, but budget cuts in Washington, as it withdraws from countries such as Afghanistan, mean that it will account for just 30 percent by 2021 to fall behind Asia at 31 percent.
Military spending in the Asia Pacific region – which includes China, India and Indonesia – will rise 35 percent to $501 billion in the next eight years, compared to a 28 percent fall in U.S. spending to $472 billion over the same period, IHS Jane’s said.
“The big Western defense companies have no option – export or shrink – but this could be sowing the seed of their own demise; the opportunities in the East are a double-edged sword, fuelling a trend which threatens U.S. dominance of defence.” said Guy Anderson, senior principal analyst at IHS Jane’s.
China’s ramp-up in defense spending in recent years is worrying its neighbors such as Japan, with whom it is currently embroiled in a stand-off over a series of uninhabited islands, despite its repeated reassurances that there is nothing to fear.
Japan, as well as India and South Korea, are among countries being courted by weapon makers such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and BAE Systems who want to sell them fighter jets and other equipment to make up for reduced spending in their Western home markets, but such deals tend to require investment in the buyers’s defense industries.
Israeli sources told I-HLS that many of the future deals in Asia will include systems that aer either made for homeland security or that are defined “dual Use.”

Asia is appearing to be on the edge of a high tech conventional forces playground.

Almost every single country in the region is either in possession of or is in the process of acquiring modern, state of the art armored vehicles, fighters and naval vessels.  Included in that shopping list are UAVs and other high tech surveillance systems/equipment.

Simply put.

We're going to be fighting mirror images of ourselves with slight variations on the theme.  Congratulations partnership missions.  You succeeded.  Everyone lusted after our capabilities and now the entire region is about to have them.

The biggest issue facing the Pentagon?

We're building the wrong force to win in this new, emerging, high tech battlefield and with the wrong strategy.

*  How will the LCS fare in a high tech sea fight?
*  How will the short legged F-22 do against SU-30/35 and J-20 launching from extreme long range under direction of an integrated anti-air network?
*  Is Air Sea Battle valid with the force of the next 10 to 20 years?
*  Is over the horizon assault valid under these conditions or will it have to wait until defense are rolled back?
*  Is the Sea Base survivable against a technologically capable foe utilizing undersea robotic attack vehicles, multi-spectrum air attack, hypersonic anti-ship missiles and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (why go after a carrier when you can cripple an assault assembling off shore?)
*  Do Stryker Brigades have a role against mechanized forces of equal capabilities?
*  Will Heavy Brigade Combat Teams even be able to function in restricted Asian cities, light load only (by Western standards) bridges and numerous waterways?

Our future force is sizing up to be the wrong force.  Want an even more troubling issue?  The Middle Eastern countries are rapidly arming up too.  The same issues apply.  Not only are they buying comparable equipment but in many cases its our stuff.  Once China cracks the code and starts selling high tech variations of our gear (without modifications or backdoors so that they can't be fully utilized) we'll face the same issues in the Middle East.

We're soon to suffer the hangover from a period of the worst Generalship in our nations history...both on the battlefield and in setting the table for future forces.