An oldie but a goodie. Basics are as follows...
* Has a 500 mile range.
* Carries a 600 kg payload.
* Has a CEP of 700m (this is really unimpressive but we are talking about 1960's technology).
* Assad has used these weapons against the rebels with reportedly devastating effect. People describe massive destruction after one hits.
Again, this is not an impressive weapon but if you think back to your Gulf War One history, then you'll realize that not even our Patriots were entirely successful in shooting them down. Even the remnants can be deadly.
A few of these with a chemical warehead agaist Israel or more likly Turkey would be quite an escelation, and possibly the beginning of a large scale conflict in the Middle east.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, with memory's back to the Jom Kippoer war im not a fan of the Assad's I think the alternative would be much worse this time, I really hope the us government will tred very carefully, stirring up this hornets nest is very dangerous.
they aren't thinking in Washington. this guy is going to order the attack regardless of advice and he doesn't realize that his real opponent isn't a weak assad but the Iranians who have designs on the entire region. he (the president) is playing into their hands. we give assad a love tap of maybe 100 tomahawks and he lights up Turkey and Israel and torches Jordan just for kicks. iran mobilizes Hezbollah to light up Israel, the Egyptians are already in crazy mode and the idiots in Iraq start agitating. next thing you know we have rioting in Saudi Arabia and gas is 15 dollars a gallon.
DeleteFire a few dozen at a couple of airbases in Jordan or Turkey and they might get lucky. Hit an underground fuel tank, crater a runway, nail an admin building. It would be an inconvenience, but it might be a shot across the bow.
DeleteThey also have some SS-21 Scarab's
If Syria starts targeting urban areas, they'll lose the moral aspect of the war.
With the Euros sitting this one out, I'd laugh my ass off if a few IL-76s were to fly in a couple of S-300 batteries back up with some more Pantsir batteries. Just let a few satellite pics get back to planners and to see the look on their faces.
The Russians could claim that it is for defense against 'Cruise Missiles'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/29/us-syria-crisis-missiles-idUSBRE97S12920130829
Assad 'lights up' Turkey, a NATO-member, and Syria will by repeatedly-reconfirmed NATO-internal agreement be facing all of NATO - no exceptions. And that will see UK, Germany etc. get off their fences...
DeleteTwo outcomes (at least):
- NATO-Occupation of Syria, courtesy of a Coalition-of-the-previously-Unwilling, quite an intriguing prospect, with many instances of domestic growth of defense-related maturity after extended periods of self-imposed infantilization of the discussion.
- Giving up on NATO by certain key NATO-members who may not 'feel like it'.
Two historic events courtesy of Syria's Civil War:
1. Possibly the end of the 'Special Relationship' with the UK as of last Thursday.
2. A possibly severe/destructive test of what NATO stands for by 2013.
"May you live in interesting times..." Well, that's a dumb one-liner, since times have always been 'interesting' for someone in each society, although perhaps beyond the interest of history-writers.
A 700m CEP isnt that bad if its a cluster bomblet load, its utterly useless for a big bomb, but 600 1kg bombs, still going to miss your target if its a tank, but if its a tank brigade, or an airfield, or a city, a 700m CEP isnt an issue
ReplyDeleteThat also assumes someone hasnt upgraded the guidance package
for a chemical warehead aimed at a major Turkish city a 700m cep is more ! than enough, and considering the geography of the region Turkey is the most likely target considering the length of the shared border (and the med),
DeleteIsrael by now will probably be able to mount a good defence.
By the looks of it every major Turkish city will be at risk for pay back puposes especially since they been rather agressive in there retorik towards syria themself
i think they might aim a few at Lebanon.
DeleteGuessing targets is a very hard game.
ReplyDeleteBecause there isnt a logical map of who hates who.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/the-middle-east-explained-in-one-sort-of-terrifying-chart/
People think the US is mad to consider fighting Alqueda in Afghanistan but supporting it in Syria, but thats completely normal for the area.
Its like if in world war two, the US was fighting with Britain and against Germany in Europe, but Britain was fighting with Japan against the US in the pacific
Assad could Gas Hamas, because they support the Rebels, but Hamas is a proxy force, primarily bankrolled by Iran, Assads biggest supporter.
Israel also (apparently) supports the rebels, but hates fellow rebel supporter, Hamas.
Its an interesting exercise in the dangers of proxy forces.
You can create them, arm them, train them, but you cant then stop them wandering off to the highest bidder down the road.