Hmmm…I don't think so. The ATD-X has been in development since at least 2005 (possibly even earlier since 2005 was when the RCS model was tested) and is expected to make a first flight later this year. Something like 9 - 10yrs and only for a single configuration! I would keep your excitement levels in check.
Actually it was more like 5 years from the official greenlight to the first flight. The ATD-X program prior to 2009 was a bluff intended pressure the US into selling F-22 to Japan. Only when the final US answer was firm no, the green light for an actual demonstrator was given. The 23DMU was supposed to take another 13 years to go from a demonstrator to the full scale combat jet, but it's canned. Which means there would be no advanced Japanese type jet operational until the 2030 at the earliest, even if Japan signs another partner nation other than the US.
So by the 2030s we will find out who was right, the Japanese approach of using a YF-23 sized airframe to carry two 150 km supersonic antiship missiles internally, or the Korean approach of using an F-18C sized airframe to carry two 300 km supersonic antiship missiles externally 5~7 years earlier.
This is a demonstrator for 23DMU, a proposed F-15J replacement. Originally the ATD-X was a paper project intended to pressure the US to sell Japan F-22s, but became real when the US refused.
However, due to internal problems the 23DMU is canned, replaced by 24DMU, an F-2 replacement. The 24DMU will carry two supersonic antiship missiles internally, is about the size of a YF-23, and is expected to cost like a YF-23; this is the reason why Japan really wants to merge the 24DMU program with a US 6th gen F-X program. If the US still refuses, then Japan will have to seek out other willing partners, most likely Australia because Australia is the only country able to afford and need a $200 million+ jet. The ATD-X shown will be flown around for a couple of years, but will not lead to a production model. Only the experiences and the data gathered will be reused.
In the mean time, the majority of F-15Js will be replaced with 100 F-35s, and the later build F-15Js upgraded until the F-3 becomes available.
I disagree. First of all where did you get your infos? From blogs? The 23DMU and 24DMU you mentioned is just made by the fanatic bloggers.
The ATD-X is just a prototype for the future Japanese indigenous stealth fighter, planned estimated to be fully developed the prototype by 2018. There is no such internal problem yet because the prototype is just developed for testing. The plan for future japanese stealth was started 24 years ago during the FS-X program for the the F-2, but the U.S intervened and pressured Japan, so we postponed and pushed to have a joint development with the Lockheed Martin for the F-2 which is based from the F-16 design that became a multirole fighter. So we asked to buy the F-22 but U.S did not sell the F-22 to other countries even with its closest allies. So we decided to resume our postponed FSX program, so finally we have our own stealth prototype now. If U.S did not intervened and pressured us on FSX program 24 years ago, we will not even have to ask U.S for the F-22.
The ATD-X will be "indigenous" japanese stealth fighter, it is not intended to be jointly developed with other countries.
Also, the F-35's that Japan ordered will be for the replacements of F-4EJ not F-15J.
"The Japanese MOD has outlined a plan for an “F-3” fighter to replace Mitsubishi F-2s in Japan Air Self-Defense Force service in the late 2020s, and expects to make a decision in Fiscal Year 2018 as to whether to continue with an indigenous design or to proceed along a joint development path"
> Also, the F-35's that Japan ordered will be for the replacements of F-4EJ not F-15J.
F-4EJ <= Replaced by 42 F-35s. Early build F-15J <= Originally to be replaced by 23DMU, now by 100 F-35s. Later build F-15J <= Replaced by F-3 F-2 <= Replaced by F-3
The F-3 won't be affordable. Heck a YF-23 sized production jet is not affordable even for Japan and this is why Japan is trying to merge its program with the US 6th gen F-X program.
The only lower cost jet available in the 2020s will be the KFX, which has a projected program unit cost of $160 million for the Block 1 model. Even if Koreans swallow the $8.5 billion development cost and charges only the production cost to foreign customers, the unit production cost is $100 million. For that money, customers get a jet optimized for A2A combat, not A2G combat like the F-35. If you want to go lower than $100 million, then you must shop Chinese or Turkish.
Based on my less than adequate language skills, the documentary stated that the intent for an advanced fighter began in the days of designing the F2, where the source code was not freely provided to the japanese. with that said, i applaud the japanese for prototyping a hull faster than the F35 can resolve its issues which is already in LRIP.
That said, it might be hard for them to sell this most advanced craft for security's sake but I think they might start making many cheap and cost effective alternatives for ex western nations who cant get US arms in time, either due to funding issue or political deadlock.
Well shiitt... they build a hull faster then Lockheed Martin decide the shape of joystick in F-35.
ReplyDeleteHmmm…I don't think so. The ATD-X has been in development since at least 2005 (possibly even earlier since 2005 was when the RCS model was tested) and is expected to make a first flight later this year. Something like 9 - 10yrs and only for a single configuration! I would keep your excitement levels in check.
DeleteActually it was more like 5 years from the official greenlight to the first flight. The ATD-X program prior to 2009 was a bluff intended pressure the US into selling F-22 to Japan. Only when the final US answer was firm no, the green light for an actual demonstrator was given. The 23DMU was supposed to take another 13 years to go from a demonstrator to the full scale combat jet, but it's canned. Which means there would be no advanced Japanese type jet operational until the 2030 at the earliest, even if Japan signs another partner nation other than the US.
DeleteSo by the 2030s we will find out who was right, the Japanese approach of using a YF-23 sized airframe to carry two 150 km supersonic antiship missiles internally, or the Korean approach of using an F-18C sized airframe to carry two 300 km supersonic antiship missiles externally 5~7 years earlier.
Looks short-legged (a true Mitsubishi F-1 replacement as opposed to the F-2 which replaced the F-1).
ReplyDeleteThis is a demonstrator for 23DMU, a proposed F-15J replacement. Originally the ATD-X was a paper project intended to pressure the US to sell Japan F-22s, but became real when the US refused.
DeleteHowever, due to internal problems the 23DMU is canned, replaced by 24DMU, an F-2 replacement. The 24DMU will carry two supersonic antiship missiles internally, is about the size of a YF-23, and is expected to cost like a YF-23; this is the reason why Japan really wants to merge the 24DMU program with a US 6th gen F-X program. If the US still refuses, then Japan will have to seek out other willing partners, most likely Australia because Australia is the only country able to afford and need a $200 million+ jet. The ATD-X shown will be flown around for a couple of years, but will not lead to a production model. Only the experiences and the data gathered will be reused.
In the mean time, the majority of F-15Js will be replaced with 100 F-35s, and the later build F-15Js upgraded until the F-3 becomes available.
I disagree. First of all where did you get your infos? From blogs?
DeleteThe 23DMU and 24DMU you mentioned is just made by the fanatic bloggers.
The ATD-X is just a prototype for the future Japanese indigenous stealth fighter, planned estimated to be fully developed the prototype by 2018. There is no such internal problem yet because the prototype is just developed for testing. The plan for future japanese stealth was started 24 years ago during the FS-X program for the the F-2, but the U.S intervened and pressured Japan, so we postponed and pushed to have a joint development with the Lockheed Martin for the F-2 which is based from the F-16 design that became a multirole fighter.
So we asked to buy the F-22 but U.S did not sell the F-22 to other countries even with its closest allies. So we decided to resume our postponed FSX program, so finally we have our own stealth prototype now.
If U.S did not intervened and pressured us on FSX program 24 years ago, we will not even have to ask U.S for the F-22.
The ATD-X will be "indigenous" japanese stealth fighter, it is not intended to be jointly developed with other countries.
Also, the F-35's that Japan ordered will be for the replacements of F-4EJ not F-15J.
Prosocial Antiracist
Delete> The 23DMU and 24DMU you mentioned is just made by the fanatic bloggers.
The source is TRDI of the Japanese Defense Ministry.
http://aviationweek.com/defense/japan-increases-defense-spending
> The ATD-X is just a prototype for the future Japanese indigenous stealth fighter, planned estimated to be fully developed the prototype by 2018.
They will decide if they should go ahead and how, not by 2018.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2014-04-17/japanese-stealth-demonstrator-fly-year
"The Japanese MOD has outlined a plan for an “F-3” fighter to replace Mitsubishi F-2s in Japan Air Self-Defense Force service in the late 2020s, and expects to make a decision in Fiscal Year 2018 as to whether to continue with an indigenous design or to proceed along a joint development path"
> Also, the F-35's that Japan ordered will be for the replacements of F-4EJ not F-15J.
F-4EJ <= Replaced by 42 F-35s.
Early build F-15J <= Originally to be replaced by 23DMU, now by 100 F-35s.
Later build F-15J <= Replaced by F-3
F-2 <= Replaced by F-3
What does it transform in to?
ReplyDeletean affordable fighter that will compete with the F-35 on the export market.
DeleteThe F-3 won't be affordable. Heck a YF-23 sized production jet is not affordable even for Japan and this is why Japan is trying to merge its program with the US 6th gen F-X program.
DeleteThe only lower cost jet available in the 2020s will be the KFX, which has a projected program unit cost of $160 million for the Block 1 model. Even if Koreans swallow the $8.5 billion development cost and charges only the production cost to foreign customers, the unit production cost is $100 million. For that money, customers get a jet optimized for A2A combat, not A2G combat like the F-35. If you want to go lower than $100 million, then you must shop Chinese or Turkish.
"an affordable fighter that will compete with the F-35 on the export market." - Oh Sol' …you have got to cut back whatever it is you are smoking!
DeleteI actually got that and I was thinking the same thing.
DeleteThis thing has 80s military sci-fi anime written all over it, which is why I find it beautiful.
Based on my less than adequate language skills, the documentary stated that the intent for an advanced fighter began in the days of designing the F2, where the source code was not freely provided to the japanese. with that said, i applaud the japanese for prototyping a hull faster than the F35 can resolve its issues which is already in LRIP.
ReplyDeleteThat said, it might be hard for them to sell this most advanced craft for security's sake but I think they might start making many cheap and cost effective alternatives for ex western nations who cant get US arms in time, either due to funding issue or political deadlock.
you could bet it will be good for war before the F35...
ReplyDeleteWhat a joke!
DeleteIt looks like an small advanced trainer.
ReplyDeletehttp://thenews.pl/446cba79-8f55-4f07-b408-6d7c659ede8e.file
Anyone else noticed that this thing looks really similar to an F-18?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.airsceneuk.org.uk/airshow02/singapore/FA-18-Super-Hornet.jpg
ReplyDeletehttp://photosite.pl/aviation/riat06/f18super/images/08015.jpg