Thursday, October 23, 2014

UK beware. Brazil & Argentina are cooperating more, arguing less....


I knew that Argentina was buying more and more gear from Brazil...from the VBTP-MR wheeled infantry fighting vehicle to the KC-390...but I didn't know that this was in the works.  Check this out from UPI...
Brazil and Argentina are to begin negotiations over the purchase of Swedish-designed Gripen fighters to be manufactured in Brazil.The decision was announced in Brazil by visiting Argentine Defense Minister Agustín Rossi.
Brazil's Ministry of Defense said the talks over the possible purchase of 24 Brazil-produced Gripens would include not only the conditions of purchase but also Argentina's participation in the production of the Saab-designed aircraft.
"Our willingness to cooperate with Argentina, our neighbor and ally, is total," said Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim.
Brazil and Argentina already cooperate on a number of defense projects and during the Argentine minster's visit signed a new cooperative agreement to strengthen ties between their defense industries.
Brazil is expected to sign an agreement with Sweden later this year for the procurement of as many as three dozen Saab-made Gripen multi-role fighter aircraft, with provisions for technology transfer and local manufacturing.
Yeah.  In a landscape filled with high priced fighters...most approaching 100 million dollars each...the little monster from Saab is about to pick up another customer.

How long before the reality of the F-35 and its sky high maintenance costs finally force air forces around the world to look for alternatives?  By 2020 the choices will be stark.  Either you buy the F-35 (which I believe no one will be able to afford), Chinese or Russian airplanes.

Saab is going to win by default and Brazil is placing itself in the cat bird's seat of being a licensed producer of the Gripen.  

But what should worry the UK are the close ties forming between Argentina and Brazil.  I might be way off base but I can see a Brazilian form of the Monroe Doctrine appear in the near future....and the Falkland Islands being the test case.

32 comments :

  1. Rafale will still be produced by 2020, and perhaps the NEURON child will be close to IOC ???

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  2. Well you still meet some Argentinians nut jobs that create some alternative history of Falklands and want that God's forsaken piece of rocks buck under own rule. I wonder if Admiralty did not push building of heavy carriers just as answer for another possible conflict there.

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  3. Btw: Fins start to search for F/A-18 replacement, maybe it's another market where SAAB can win.

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  4. argentina? :))

    cmon, any medium European country with proper naval transport would wipe the floor with those phonic polluting things

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    1. Key word... "proper naval transport".

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    2. Agreed.
      I really don't believe the brazilians would agree with a alliance with the argentinians.
      I mean, we don't like then that much and they usually are arrogant and kinda racist.

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  5. IMHO, the argentine obsession about Falklands is annoying and embarrassing . Yes, there are strong economical ties with Brasilia and Buenos Aires. However, as we are living the fiercest presidential election since 1989 in Brasil, a change of alignment with our "hermanos" about this subject is possible.

    I understand british concern, but I'd put a bit of salt about this deal. Argentines gave up to buy very old Mirages F1 from Spain and not-so-old israeli Kfirs recently. Their budget is a mess and their trend to default is notorious. So, this sudden announcement sounds like a burst of enthusiasm due to their role on KC-390 or an argentinian president doing PR to her people. She will face elections next year.

    So, I'd keep myself skeptic about this sudden burst of dare to buy brand new fig

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  6. I am Brazilian and I guarantee to you: Brazil is a "gentle giant". Pacific in nature. Always had close ties with Argentina, but never go to war with Argentina, still less because of the falklands.
    Brazil would only enter into a war to protect the country itself, or as happened in WWII. I live in Brazil since birth and our people never wondered interfere in the dispute Falklands / Malvinas, much less through a war.
    Sorry for my english,

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    1. you're good...besides your English is 10000 times better than my Portuguese.

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    2. Solomon, I like your blog and your style. You always have two eyes opened for possible threats to USA or it's allies. Which is good. Despite that, I must say that Argentina is no threat in the near or mid term future. The country is broken, even if they manage to buy a dozen of jets they won't have money for the fuel. About Brazil I can give you two scenarios: 1)Rousseff is re-elected. She will continue if the south-south foreign policy, arming and financing her allies (most of the time, non-USA friends) here you must be aware. 2)Neves wins, he is a pragmatic business man, he intends to get more connected to USA (and the developed countries, or anyone who wants to make profitable business for both sides) and press our neighbours to pay what they owe before making new loans. The last one is good for USA.

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    3. Really? Seu a gentle giant? what about talking about what you did to Paraguay (with Argentina&Uruguay) they killed all males over 8 years old, from the 550k population at the beginning of the war they ended up with 220k of which only 28k were males,
      What you did to Bolivia Acre?

      And after having lived in Argentina, no they don't have the means to danger in anyway the Falklands, I still remember the Italian veteran that fought on the Gothic line and in the Falklands too after emigrating.

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    5. Meriv, you should read more about what happened in Paraguay. The mad dictator of that country, Solano Lopez, obligated all it's male population to fight in a war where they were the aggressors. FYI, at the final years of the war, during the combats, when the allied (Brazil+Argentina+Uruguay) soldiers noticed they were fighting kids, they began offering them surrender or tried to capture them alive. Noticing that the paraguayan kids were leaving the weapons to flee to allied trenches, Solano Lopez made the kids wear fake beards made of ox hair, in order to keep the enemies firing. Other insane things about this war you can find at the "Maldita Guerra - DORATIOTO, Francisco. 2002"

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    6. Francisco please explain me what should have done Lopez after what happened in Uruguay? Since it looks you "forgot" what happened before the "aggression".

      I will read Doratioto and confront with what historians like Pigna wrote. Until then it is more believable the negative version of the winning party than the positive version(without even taking in consideration the influence the british had in the continent).

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    7. P.S. I'm not defending the dictator.

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    8. Meriv, Firstly, to discuss a war of 19th century through our current political correct standards does not make sense to me. It was a bitter war and both sides have their share of atrocities, as any other war. There some polemic about Pigna in academic community due to his trend to romanticize history. Doratioto is sober and I would'nt consider him kind with Brazil.

      Secondly, the Bolivia-Acre question was solved diplomatically. A war was avoided, one of the best moments of brazillian diplomacy.

      I respectfully disagree with the idea of a gentle giant. We are not so kind even with our own people. But we are (slowly) improving.

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    9. I completely agree with what you wrote, I'm going to read Doratioto.

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  7. Gripen might not be the best plane out there but its the low cost low maintenance piece people are looking for to replace their aging Mig 21,23 ,Mirage III/V ,F1,Dagger,Kfir fleets only other piece that could realisticaly compete is probably J10 but that comes with political baggage.. Gripens achilies heel is the US engine as has been used to block foreign sales in the past.

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  8. I will believe this when I see it. Argentina is in recession and has inflation of over 45 percent a year. They are literally dead broke. Elections are next year, but the good news is Kristina Fernandez de Kirchner is term limited so she cannot run again. The ejection seats and IRST on the Gripen are made in the UK. Will the UK allow Sweden to export it to Argentina?

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    1. wow. i'm really beginning to wonder if i'm misunderstanding the new global system or if my reader are.

      the Gripen will be manufactured in Brazil under license. just like the F-104 was built in Italy, just like Poland is building Blackhawks. additionally (this is in response to Mr. T) every US engine maker has a European standalone. US engines are showing up in plenty of places that the US would prefer they didn't.

      even China is buying that damn things...hell they're even produced there.

      so back to the seat issue, do you really think that if Martin Baker can make a dime they aren't gonna sell it? do you think the British govt would turn down Brazil if they say they want to buy the seats for airplanes they're gonna sell?

      as far as Argentina's financial situation. its simple. default on the loans and reset the entire economy. people will rush in to offer new credit at restrictive terms but they'll still be there to give them more money.

      its doable.

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    2. US engine tech is very good so it should be a concern whose hands it is getting into.

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    3. I really don't know in regards to the UK or USA allowing exports to Argentina. I was really just thinking out loud. In terms of them defaulting, it's not that easy. Argentina is a country that lives and dies on commodities (primarily soybeans and cattle), and both of those markets look terrible. It's a socialist country and will remain one for the foreseeable future.

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  9. I agree the British should pay attention to the Falklands, not paying attention is how they got into the mess in the 80s by removing that survey ship.

    That being said there are two factors to consider: 1. The current Falklands garrison vs the 80s garrison. In the 80s the island was guarded by a platoon of Royal Marines, an unarmed Royal Navy icebreaker, and a tiny militia force (less than a squad I think). Today they've got a Flight of 4 Typhoons, 2 infantry companies (one British Army, one local company trained by the Royal Marines), a patrol boat, and a Frigate or Destroyer on patrol, plus logistics troops, all in 2000 personnel. I think that's important because on the night of the invasion the Argentine military's orders (which came from a brutal military junta) were to inflict zero casualties on British Forces in order to avoid international outrage. 2. Had the British asked, we could have provided a Carrier Battle Group to the British, the US SecDef had the Atlantic Fleet on standby if they ever called. That willingness to help out the British is even stronger today given how many times they've gone to war for us. I could easily see a Marine Expeditionary Brigade being sent.

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    1. you've seen Obama's leadership style. the war would be over before he decided to act one way or the other!

      and even if he did "come to a decision" it more than likely he would punt the whole thing to the UN and refuse to take sides. remember the US and the Brits are great friends but have a history of fucking over each other. only Bush and Blair really established the modern day thinking that the Brits are with us no matter what. Obama and Cameron have dialed that back.

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    2. I don't agree with you Sol'! President Obama and the UN would take a decisive action in form of express concern... maybe even strongly!

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  10. I am not sure if Argentina could buy the Gripen thanks to the UK-ally US providing the engine and other subsystems.

    Chinese fighters like J-31 and J-20 are far more realistic.

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  11. The US tends to block the sales of the F404/414 , Aim9X or AMRAAM whenever the Gripen competes against US aircraft companies.

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  12. The results would be rather "interesting" if Brazilian or Argentinian Gripens armed with A-Darter missiles ever faced F35s. "interesting" as in lopsided in favor of the Gripen.

    The Gripen is one of the most elaborately cost effective designs in existence. It will obtain more popular while the F35 program flounders into irrelevance.

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  13. It'd all come down to how far the UK pushes the matter.
    A full nuclear strike on Brazil is probably never going to happen, probably.
    But ASW is the area is no better than it was last time, and our boats are much improved.
    They have as much chance locating an astute with a divining crystal and an atlas as they do a naval task force.

    If we start sinking the brazilluan navy every time it leaves port, Brazil can do nothing but not leave port, and there's not a lot they can do to stop us sinking their ships in port.

    It costs the UK little to keep this up for a very long time.
    Twenty years from now, we could deny the state of Brazil a navy, we could sink any Brazilian flagged or owned vessel.

    Would we?
    Who knows.

    £70mn is the psychological barrier above which I buy Euromillions tickets.
    Its a policy that has little rational backing, yet I've stuck to it for quite a while.

    It looks great on the world stage to face down a great power, it makes you look a fool when 6 months later that fading power is still sinking your ships when it dares leave port.

    How does Brazil end that situation? Invade Argentina for the UK and force them to surrender the islands and pay reparations?

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  14. Gripen E alone is just a 27mm gun with few rounds, it's the overall weapon arsenal and tactics that makes its lethal.

    I dont think UK would block the sale, of course overhelming number of 24 Gripen E's with modern weapons could wipe out defences in one suprise sweep but UK has the sub force that can totally stop Argentine's commercial marine traffic. Sooner or later Argentine would have to give Islands back, so there is very low risk of invasion even if Argentine would have the invasion capability.

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