Saturday, January 24, 2015

Mariupol today after shelling & why the conflict in Ukraine is front and center on the blog.

Thanks to info-infanterie for the vid.



Why is the conflict in Ukraine taking such a prominent spot on my blog these last couple of months?

Simple.

We're seeing a fighting in the heart of Europe that I believe is the most consequential battle we've seen since the end of the Cold War.  Don't get me wrong.  Gulf War 1 &  2 were history making/shaping...but not in the way that this fight in Ukraine is.

We're seeing something deadly here and officials are slowly rolling it out to the public.

The US/EU is at war with Russia.

If you're a reader of this blog then you taken on the mantle of responsibility that the masses have refused.  You're aware of whats going on in the world and want to stay informed.  THIS SHIT IS HUGE!  If you've read recent news articles I have then you've heard troops headed to Ukraine described as trainers and more ominously as combat advisors!  Individuals that I keep in contact with that are still active have suddenly gone off line.

This could easily be nothing and we might the powers that be walk all this back...but confidence is not high.

60 comments :

  1. The most terrifying thing is that... they don't even pretend that they try to attack military target. Middle of residential area, no military in the vicinity, the target was a market in early hours full of people... this was an attack that main goal was to kill as many civis as they can.

    It was bloody conflict but it escalate more and more... still it's not even near Balkan Wars but it go in to that direction.

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  2. Looks like Putin doesnt mind sanctions at all.

    Good, EU and US can deliver.

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  3. @The US/EU is at war with Russia.@
    Agree. The red-line in crossed. And I really don’t understand EU inertia. For what they rely on? The situation requires making decisions and defined acts fulfillment. I can get the logic of my country, but not EU’s.

    @We're seeing something deadly here and officials are slowly rolling it out to the public.@
    Solomon, I have relevant theory about temporary agreement between ruling elites of USA and Russia which means damaging EU (as a political union). At least from this situation both USA and RF (in the main aspects) have advantages and perspectives, EU under rule of Germany completely loses.

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    1. What country you`re from?

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    2. Some hint. 'Russia, Ebola, ISIS" I live in one of this bad things)))

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    3. Let me guess..degestan somewhere...?

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    4. @Let me guess..degestan somewhere...?@
      What? What do you mean?

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    5. EU is immobile in this limbo because our public opinion wouldn't allow more intervention (like me), for example I don’t know how to feel about Ukraine after seeing McCain in December 2013 (same one of ISIS photos) and the foreign minister of Estonia (not exactly what I call a pro-Russia country) saying in a intercepted call that Maidan plaza snipers were a false flag case firing on both parties. Only thing that makes me acceptable this situation is the answer out of proportion from Russia.

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    6. @wouldn't allow more intervention (like me)@

      IMHO, a normal European personal posture, with reference to current Ukrainian situation showing weakness of “democratic” political organization of society (I mean no personal insult here, just a generalized thought). We have a direct threat to EU’s existence us such and security of Europeans. But EU’s citizens really underestimate this.

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    7. And bring in even more escalation and converting this in a real threat for EU? What for? To throw money at a country that we don't want in EU and we made this clear before (even if Poland has always been pushing for its integration and it is one of the main sources of this conflict)? For a country that for a decade just elected corrupt oligarchs of different type?

      Remember that EU isn’t only east European Russo phobic countries, Italy was going to build submarines and artic ships with you, French were building IFVs and selling Minstrals, Germany had great commercial ties.

      We have already wasted a dozen of billions in Ukraine; take in consideration that Greece in 2011 at the beginning of the bond crisis just needed Germany to approve a billion aid to it.

      Plus thanks to the French and Brits we have intervened in Libya(at least in exchange we put Draghi in the ECB presidency and this is saving Europe since geniuses like Trichet increased the interest rate at the start of the crisis) and now we have ISIS fighting just outside of our coast.

      No thanks we have way more impelling problems than muddy ourselves in Ukraine.

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    8. 1B for greece? You have to be shitting me:
      The second bailout programme, was finally ratified by all parties in February 2012, and by effect extended the first programme, meaning a total of €240 billion were to be transferred at regular tranches throughout the period from May 2010 until December 2014. Due to a worsened recession and continued delay of implementation of the conditions in the bailout programme, the Troika accepted in December 2012, to provide Greece with a last round of significant debt relief measures, while IMF extended its support with an extra €8.2bn of loans to be transferred during the period from January 2015 until March 2016.

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    10. Not 2011 but 2010.

      One thing is tackling the problem at the beginning other thing is letting it in gangrene. At the beginning the aid was between 20-25 billions and the share of Germany alone wasn’t that high from the billion.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/02/21/us-greece-economy-lagarde-idUSTRE61K16120100221

      But Germans preferred to wait and the problem just went… we know where.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/world/europe/16germany.html

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    11. to Meriv
      @No thanks we have way more impelling problems than muddy ourselves in Ukraine. @
      May be you are right, but I come from geopolitical logic of relevant conflicts which requires (IMHO, of course) military way as the main is the situation. I mean “Croatian-scenario” first, not exactly direct military involvement of EU countries us such. I see no sign of EU’s attempts to launch sort of international-guided adjustment of the conflict.
      Just an opinion.
      Regards.

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    12. The "Croatian-scenario" is considered Mitteleurope and in consequence in the influence zone of the principal country of Europe meanwhile Ukraine is way out of this boundaries.

      What happened in Ukraine would have been viable probably in a decade, but right now we must still come out of the crisis, develop east Europe to west Europe standards and absorb inside the EU the Balkans, it is like we say in Italian “too much meat on the fire”, you can’t deal with everything, Ukraine is way out of league right now.

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  4. It was real risk that the West was going to realize a Georgia-2 scenario: to rise up anti-Russian regime and incite them against Russia. But Ukraine is full of soviet weapon, have developed industry and about 30-40 mln people.

    Ukraine is full of agents of Western influence. Year-by-year among Ukrainians are well spread Nazi-like ideas toward Russians. And in Maydan-2014 we have their culmination: there are numerous vid were Ukrainians call kill Russians. But for us greatly impressive was another factor – a lot of Russians have roots in Ukraine (including me, my Grandfa was from Nicopol’) and independent source of info – all sings show impressive growth anti-Russian ideas in Ukraine.
    So the threat for Russians is real and deadly.
    I’m still keep Putin’s elite politic against Ukraine as VERY soft and inadequate to the level of threat. I guess here we need Israel-style concrete and bold dealing with this problem. I’m sure a lot of Russian military have itchy hands about this, but our oligarchic elite has their money and children in the West, and this determines a lot.

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    1. Whats also very curious is the lack of real values and congruency nowadays in the west I know geopolitics is an amoral line of work but still, its shilling to see the "lovers of freedom and rule of law" support an illegal coup in Ukraine, that achived popularity by sniping its own members and deposed, in the west own words a leader elected in an "impressive display of democracy." And to add insult to the injury they expect everyone to believe that its Putins fault, as you say he is being rather timid about its response to a real danger to the Russian State.

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    2. @Whats also very curious is the lack of real values and congruency nowadays in the west @
      Only one extreme thing in ‘Ukraine-case” I’ve noticed – falling Boing and very slow investigation of it.
      All other issues are in limits of usual geopolitical competition. Russian won prize “idiots of the millennium” when exchanged USSR for “western values”. The West just realize results of our incomparably stupidity. They sit in Afghanistan after we left it and betrayed local government, loyal for us. So we have instability and drug traffic from the region. Westerners are using historical-based tensions between cultural alike Ukrainians and Russians. So now we eagerly kill each other it this is just fu’’ing beginning.
      This competition is normal, as the result of it Westerners have their high level of wealth ad development, and Russians sucks. Each stupidity must be punished.

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  5. Mariupol has a very good metallurgy industry - I imagine Putin wants to cut and steal that element of economy out of Ukraine.

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    1. @a very good metallurgy industry @

      Which is a very tasty asset for Ukrainian oligarchs. I guess rebels try to exhaust Ukrainians riding between Mariupol’ and Debal’tsevo. Where rebels need to get 10km trip, Ukrainians ride 100km. This cause greatly more loses in material for Ukrainians then whatever rebels fire.

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  6. Mariupol is a side show, military wise more important matters take place in Donetsk area. But it shows what grads do in a heavily populated area.

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    1. Anyone watching Ukraine assault unfold understands that Mariupol take-over was part of a 'must-have' end-game. (military-wise). The question was how to delicately get there, in a creeping offensive, with minimal shock to EU/NATO et al.

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  7. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiwIUsX63Hk&feature=youtu.be&t=2m28s
    Ukrainian journalist caught by accident some English-speaking military in Mariupol’ after the strike at once.
    “not my face, please” he said (a very shy person, I see). Hmmm, strange accent for Ukrainian))))
    Bggg

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    1. screenshot of the shy-guy
      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8IQTH3IMAA5P_Q.jpg

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    2. pretty strong non-english accent with this one

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    3. Not sure who this guy is but it sounded American or Canadian. Considering his gear (drop pouch) he looks like he had some training and he is worried about OpSec.

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  8. Replies
    1. @The SMM conducted a crater analysis and its initial assessment showed that the impacts were caused by Grad and Uragan rockets. According to the impact analysis, the Grad rockets originated from a north-easterly direction, in the area of Oktyabr (19 km north-east of Olimpiiska Street), and the Uragan rockets from an easterly direction, in the area of Zaichenko (15 km east of Olimpiiska Street), both controlled by the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”).@

      Can't find "Zaichenko" or "Oktyabr" on google-map. What do they mean?

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    2. https://www.google.lt/maps/place/Zaichenko,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@47.1863588,37.7286697,11z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x40e6c342cad0ec1b:0x736894bb46af265a?hl=en

      https://www.google.lt/maps/place/Oktyabr,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@47.2370578,37.6943568,11z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x40e6dad578575935:0xbc86029008c4afc8?hl=en

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    3. thanks a lot! I faild to find it in Russian version of google map

      It looks like this point can be under the rebels control. But I’m sure further investigation and more facts required.

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    4. Out of curiosity, what kind of investigation you have in mind? It's a fairly simple math involving known direction and known parameters of MLRS.

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    6. @what kind of investigation you have in mind?@
      An official commission (including representatives of DPR at the best) with official open report and showing analyzed evidences (including ballistic expertise at the best).

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    7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test
      "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. "

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    8. Ok. Let’s imagine the completely theoretical situation: you are suspected in a murder. You asked the judge:
      “Any proofs?”
      “Yes, your neighbor, who owe to you a lot of money, said he saw how bullets flew from your window and hit the victim”.
      “May be some ballistic expertise?” – you said, being shocked.
      “No. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”
      End of the story.

      Each crime requires investigation, I guess.

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    9. Truth and justice should work together, but let's not start the courtroom rhetoric here. It's pretty damn clear who fired the shots.

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    10. here proved the position that some shells arrived from North or North-West
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lqo8Txu89HI#t=218
      http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/wesservic/36941460/524124/524124_original.png
      http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/wesservic/36941460/523979/523979_original.png
      http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/wesservic/36941460/525027/525027_original.jpg

      taken here
      http://peremogi.livejournal.com/6436103.html

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    11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfdHspfAPbI&feature=youtu.be

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  9. the essence of the Russian people
    https://pp.vk.me/c624720/v624720201/1b1f7/dBeEuY_joQ4.jpg

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    1. "Russian is an animal"
      mmm. You have shown a typical Ukrainian’s Nazi propaganda.

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    2. Not entirely true. This comes from putler's speech:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6f7o9QJ5Jmc

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  10. KEEP IT CIVIL (I'M ACTUALLY SURPRISED IT TOOK THIS LONG!) NO OVERT PROPAGANDA. NO DEMEANING OF EITHER SIDE. FAIR, BALANCED, ANALYSIS OF THE CONFLICT IS WHAT I'M AFTER!!!!!

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  11. http://youtu.be/MuQjfctHLZ4

    video of the attack itself. much military targets.

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  12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISnzgvOpWL0

    another video register

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  13. Offtopic
    http://s008.radikal.ru/i304/1501/56/16b47aa03a8f.jpg
    Ha! It looks like Spartan APC proved its weak chassis.

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  14. No need to exaggerate. If we were at war with Russia I wouldn't have the time to be typing this right now.
    Trade still goes on within the limits of sanctions, normal meetings with russians are still being held
    (with a chilly atmosphere though), tourists still cross the EU/Russia border in both directions, no covert sabotages have been carried out outside Ukraine, ect. There is not even a Iron Curtain present yet, much less a war.

    Right now time is in EU:s favor or at least it believes so and it wants to buy time for a better position to negotiate. Russia understands this and will likely make its final push this winter before rasputitsa hits in the spring.
    Hopefully somekind of new status quo can be achieved during summer or we might see a new cold war.

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  15. What now ? it is obvious that sanctions and false-flags dont faze the russian considering the importance of ukraine just in front of russia's border..

    Now NATO overty entered the fray ? with what ? and is the risk worth it ? sanctions wont work as long as china openly supported and helped russia..

    one false move and this will lead to WW3 , with nukes on both sides... nice

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    1. What now? It has been said very clear, friend. Kremlin needs to stop support for the continued offensive agenda of the separatist militia side. This includes all Ru forces and official/rogue intel/GRU services operating in support of separatist militants in continued offenses and expansion of land-grab.

      This has nothing to do with NATO. This has everything to do with Kremlin making the responsible and sensible decision, regardless of the political corner Kremlin has pushed itself into, in needing to show positive results of war to domestic base and not appear to back down or appear weak. There must be a concession and compromise made and ability by Kremlin to portray such compromise as a face-saving win.

      And absolutely, Kremlin should not be threatening nuclear blackmail to anyone, and WW3, etc, to anyone opposing Kremlin's unfolding unilateral policy agenda. That is totally unacceptable and will only come back to harm Kremlin base more. Respects.

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    2. @Kremlin needs to stop support@
      It looks like more logic that Kremlin at first hand needs to act according to RF’s interests. Ukraine causes great danger for Russia – no it is country where people are killed in the center of country’s capital, where dozens of people were burned alive, where Boeing was down with unclear circumstances. Not to mention anti-Russian hysteria well spread among Ukrainians. It is too danger country for us.
      All Western “we-want-you-to-do-this” – Russia puts aside. If the West bought some of our elite, it doesn’t mean you have all country.
      @Kremlin should not be threatening nuclear blackmail to anyone, and WW3@
      After the West in brutal manner divided Serbia, international law, existed before and based on USA-USSR mutual limitations, failed. Now only one law exists - “might is right”. And RF has Nuclear might and it is only base of RF’s right. So it is logical – to put Russian nuke weapon as the first argument, because only this argument the current Western political regime will pay attention.
      Regards.

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    3. @sanctions wont work as long as China openly supported and helped Russia..

      In that case, sanctions are working... slow like every sanction but they are working. Because, if you did not notice that China DID NOT openly support Russia. They are in the perfect position to sit and watch, doing nothing to put them on this or other side.

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    4. Yes, Kremlin's Nuke blackmail threats are in fact causing West govt's to pay attentions... hence sanctions as the natural, unfortunate blowback and counter-measure. It's all unnecessary truly though, if the hawkishness (us vs them, zero-sum paradigm) can be reversed and leadership with more open minded, liberal, modern-era philosophy can better influence the policy-making. Regardless, thanks for revealing your deeper thoughts. Good luck and respects.

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    5. @if the hawkishness (us vs them, zero-sum paradigm) @
      I completely share your idea (If I get it correct, of course) about nonconstructivity of the “zero-sum paradigm”. But it looks like our world must be reloaded and this process goes through blood and destruction. But I hope that the process will be controlled better then, before by geopolitical subject – including pressure-relief points as Ukraine. Through the disaster in one limited location we can avoid global war (I hope, at least). And thanks to God I live in well-military protected country having all primary necessities enough to entire nation at once.
      I dream sooner or later era of international cooperation will rise after the main global contradictions will be adjusted – at least now we have all basement to this in the Future.
      Mutual respect and best wishes!

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  16. Well worth watching.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1421914688&v=_IYJzj5vDxM&x-yt-cl=84503534#t=11

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    1. Motorola is amazing with his specific “heavy-words-around” commanding style. True warlord.
      He is a Russian Marines, by-the-way.

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    2. 38:42
      an interesting explosive...

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    3. The "Motorola"... always wonder why not "Nokia" it was a way better phone... is an TV celebrity, as someone writhe that "field commander" couple of months ago stop being an "field" an a "commander" but start to be a TV star, he don't go near the any fighting in months.

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    4. @ always wonder why not "Nokia"@
      As a rule veterans take in new war the same call signs they have before. And a call sign everyone chooses himself.
      @he don't go near the any fighting in months.@
      He is a commander of front line – in the film his specific voice appearŅ‹ very often in radio talking – it means Motorola is on the same place.

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