Thursday, January 22, 2015

Why are we tip toeing into the Ukraine conflict?

via Defense News.
WASHINGTON — American soldiers will deploy to Ukraine this spring to begin training four companies of the Ukrainian National Guard, the head of US Army Europe Lt. Gen Ben Hodges said during his first visit to Kiev on Wednesday.
The number of troops heading to the Yavoriv Training Area near the city of L'viv — which is about 40 miles from the Polish border — is still being determined, however.
The American training effort comes as part of a US State Department initiative "to assist Ukraine in strengthening its law enforcement capabilities, conduct internal defense, and maintain rule of law" Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. Vanessa Hillman told Defense News.
This is another example of why I so despise the current crop of military leaders.  They've gobbed onto this training concept with both hands and refuse to let it go...no matter how many times we see it fail...in Iraq, Afghanistan, Mali...where we've tried to teach people to fight the way we do they always fail in combat.

Not only does the failure of the country's forces that are being trained tarnish us, but it also draws us into the conflict which means that we have what we're seeing now...a much less stable world.

This also explains why I haven't heard from a certain person that will go unnamed.  I'm sure he's up to his elbows in this mess.  I'll try and get you all a behind the scenes look at this but confidence is not high.  I'm sure this stupidity is cloaked behind a "need to know" wall. 

SIDENOTE:  This will probably be the nail in the coffin for any type of peaceful outcome.  How can I, a blogger see how inflammatory this move can be but the people in the State Dept and Pentagon be so blind.  One last thing.  The reason why this conflict is getting so much airtime on my pages is because I see this as being the most consequential war happening at this time.  The fight against ISIS?  People will die but its essentially craziness in a handbag...deploy our force of B-52's against those primitives in round the clock unrestricted bombing and they'll get back in their hole.  We don't have that option in Ukraine which makes it much more dangerous.

37 comments :

  1. Sol , what in your opinion will be the american public reaction to a massive mobilization of US military and allies (as in ODS 91) to help ukraine / deter russian / defend ukraine from russia (whatever the narrative is) .

    will the american public support such direct conflict between Russia and US over Ukraine ?

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  2. Sol, that is why it's called a "proxy war". You yourself remarked on it before. And as long as it is not US vs Russia, there is a limit to which it can escalate. Worst case, Ukraine gets tossed to the USSR, oh sorry, CIS, and the border beyond Ukraine gets reinforced while Russia digests its new acquisition. Something like South Vietnam.

    And to be fair, sometimes training works, given enough time and investment. Like 20 years worth. This, on the other hand, isn't training. It's a 2 week boot camp and off to war.

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  4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq

    Ukraine had 1,5k people in Iraq upon USA request. Not to mention the .. cough... Budapest memorandum... cough...

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    1. Cheers from braļukas! :P

      Anyway, US is doing what Russia already has been - have people really forgot that the trigger of war was activated when Russian Security service Colonel Girkin went to Slovyansk taking over governmental buildings,including police stations and army bases.

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    2. Fair comments, Eldererr and thanks for the historical perspective and side note. As for Slovyansk however, it is quite possible that Kremlin is not happy with control reversing back to sovereign Ukraine boundary and protection after brief extremist takeover and shocking interim Kiev govt and military into mobilizing the initial 'anti-terrorist' operations to preempt further extremist assaults. Yet, therein is part of the circular (catch 22) conundrum and cause of continuing escalation -- i.e. the need for Kremlin to save face and show convincing victory to domestic Russian public in engagements where Kremlin has committed itself. So what is left is to only hope Kremlin would in fact push for real truce as conditional for the follow-on summit meeting, (assuming sufficient face-saving), even while negotiating in perhaps not the full position of strength originally expected by now? Note Kharkiv and Mariupol being two other examples.

      Regardless, the issue about US troops holding it's next training camp in Ukraine reportedly near the Polish border is probably something USG is reluctant to do, for non-NATO member state, and would obviously be a politically sensitive and diplomatically uncertain policy step. But USG is probably feeling pressured (under the eyes of the region) to make some show of resolve, albeit even in a 'low profile' pro-self-defensive and supportive tone for a sovereign Ukraine - separate of the issue of simultaneously supporting a political solution with the opposition, for a unified and sovereign Ukraine. Just my assessment.

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    3. The strategic issue is this: The US wants a Ukraine/Russia proxy war so that Russia is too preoccupied to protect Syria/Iran. Russia has blocked this by inciting a Ukrainian civil war instead.

      The US will do everything it can to provoke Russia into an outright invasion of Ukraine. Russia will do everything it can to keep Ukraine divided and fighting itself, while appearing neutral itself. It has zero reason to declare a formal war on Ukraine, as that would be doing what the US wants.

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    4. @he US will do everything it can to provoke Russia into an outright invasion of Ukraine. Russia will do everything it can to keep Ukraine divided and fighting itself, while appearing neutral itself.@
      Totally agree, sir.

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  5. Question is not if they will be able to train the Ukrainian forces , that i have no doubt ,this are not iliterate Arabs and Afghanis with doubtfull motivations and different tribal and sectarian agendas. Question is why on whose behalf would you want to pour gasoline on fire. As you can be certain that as soon as Ukrainian military is confident of the outcome it will move against Donetsk and Lugansk rebels so this will directly lead to more war.You could train a part of the Ukie military up to Nato levels but still if it came to shooting war with Russia the would be swiftly bombed into submision. One thing people forget old habits die hard FSB probably has people in high places in armed and inteligence services many former Soviet states so like in Georgia they would likely know what is going to happen well in advance.

    This was the case in Georgia ,Georgia fought civil war with its break away regions couple of times in the past, 1992 and 1998 interestingly at that time Chechens fought on Georgian side ,2008 war was just a last event , Georgian leadership taught that being all Nato standard and having spent $$ on building up the military it was ready to take over the breakaway regions ,Georgian budget for armed forces soared 50fold from 2002-2008 ,it seems West Point officer cader skipped some lessons ,in any case to any outside observer this alone could be sign for alarm and that Georgia is preparing for war .Russians knew and let them start the war only to steam roll them back in humiliaating defeat.

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  6. The best strategy agains Russia is to f*** her economy.
    Take a look at Russia foreign exchange and gold reserves: em July 2014, Russia had US$ 475 billions in foreign reserves. In January 2015, Russia reserves dropped to US$ 380 billions (source; Bloomberg site).
    If Russia keeps losing US$ 100 billion per semester, It will be broke in two years.
    Keep oil prices at US$ 50 and in three years Russia´s economy will crumble.

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    1. Yes, that is Russia's weakness. But attacking their economy also hurts energy sector investment in the US, and at the end of the day, Russia could avoid using her reserves by switching to barter agreements with major trading partners instead.

      Long-term, this kind of action will be what kills the dollar as the international reserve currency. Which would be a very very bad thing for the US.

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  7. @The best strategy agains Russia is to f*** her economy. @
    Agree.

    @Keep oil prices at US$ 50 and in three years Russia´s economy will crumble.@
    Not only Russian. And we, I guess, will go through our civil economy meltdown but as the result we get more independent national civil economy.

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    1. @And we, I guess, will go through our civil economy meltdown but as the result we get more independent national civil economy.

      It´s possible, but far from certain. I believe you know It´s not the first time Russia´s economy is hurt by oil prices. It can be argued that the oil prices in the late 80´s greatly contributed to the fall of Soviet Union. But, unfortunately for Russia, for the last 20 years, Yeltsin, Putin, Medvedv, never really tried to reduce russian dependency on the revenues from oil/gas exports.

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    2. That was an huge Achilles heel... they concentrate whole system around being a big "gas station", from economical point of view... disaster waiting to happen, from cash point of view... fast ones, easy ones. And who think about possible "bad times" when the "golden times" are here?

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    3. to Jacinto
      @but far from certain@
      One thing looks like to be certain – we all will die on day. As Stalin once said “Death always wins”.

      @never really tried to reduce russian dependency @

      I prone to think that that vast majority of Putin’s regime foreign activity (from Crimea taking until recent military agreement with Iran is nothing but desperate attempt to reduce the “dependency”. And this is a question who is more dependant in this case – a supplier or a consumer.

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    4. @That was an huge Achilles heel... they concentrate whole system around being a big "gas station"@

      With all due respect, but you are completely wrong here. Judge yourself – historically both main Russian epic-fails – fall of Russian Empire and USSR collapse were first of all connected with ideas, taken from the West. Not steal all gold but ideas and their twisted reception in Russian minds.
      “Whole our system” (“realm”, IMHO, is a more correct word for our permanent turmoil) is obviously concentrated around military issues – heritage of USSR. Utilities trading give only about 20% of Russian GDP. A regular westerner mistake about our economy – confusing GDP and import. A country which has national high-tech schools in atom and cosmos industry technically can produce goods, competitive on Int. markets, in greatly more measure then we do it now. But even domestic Russian markets are still under pressure of foreign goods. Not to mention highly competitive international market where transnational companies play the main role – where “financial” and “operational” not enough - non-tariff limitations help.

      At my take, intention to push competitors out some market outlets is one of main key-factors of current aggressive RF’s behavior.

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    5. @ recent military agreement with Iran is nothing but desperate attempt to reduce the “dependency”

      It´s interesting (no irony) how different we see this question: In my thoughts this agreement was made to increase oil prices. After all, this agreement:
      (i) increase instability in the Middle East and
      (ii) work as a leverage against Saudi Arabia so they would reduce their oil production.




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    6. But don't you think info' that this pressure of foreign goods and tech is created by easy cash that start to flow in to Russia when it's start to be a "gas station"? The influx of dolars and euros that other nations start to almost throw in Russia face for oil and gas create not only new caste of Oligarchs (as there were always some kind of Oligarchs in Russia, sometimes different names but always the same role) but also the new way of thinking... why invest in own industry power when we can buy it from outside, we have the cash. Maybe it became a nation wide bourgeois syndrome... when someone that was rather poor and the shape of Russia after fall of CCCP was tragic in the short time start to receive huge pile of cash it's start to live above his standard... you don't ride Russian made car but buy Lambo, you don't fly Russian made planes but buy Boeing ones... ect.

      You don't eat own food... when you can import the more refine one or even... simple ones like our apples. A bloody apples! Maybe the "gas station = shit ton's of cash" was the reason that Russia is so sensitive for oil prices, because... why invest on your turf when you can buy things from outside.

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    7. @In my thoughts this agreement was made to increase oil prices. @

      It is not a clear fact that RF now is interested in near oil’s prices rising. Economy’s melt down is a good reason to torpedo competitors and capture their assets and controlled markets. Putin’s oligarchic clan-in-charge has all chances to get jack-pot here. As a variant, of course.

      @(i) increase instability in the Middle East and @
      Not sure, more powerful in military terms Iran has better chances to kick ISIS nut-jobs. Which is not bad for the stability, you mentioned above.

      @work as a leverage against Saudi Arabia so they would reduce their oil production. @

      There is a theory that Putin’s clan is in compete love and cooperation with current Saudi regime and the play this game (damaging USA’s shale oil and gas projects) together.

      And I can add another important reason of the deal – Iran is a very perspective military outlet.

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  8. news report
    Ukraine’s parliament has approved a mass military call-up for the country’s conflict in the east amid security warnings that Russian forces backing separatist rebels have sharply increased their activity.

    Partial conscription will resume and authorities want 100,000 reservists mobilised to strengthen the frontline as violence escalates after a period of relative calm.

    Parliament backed a decree by President Poroshenko to replace long-serving troops at the front and bring in veterans from the reserve. It also passed a law increasing the maximum age for compulsory military service from 25 to 27.

    Ukraine got rid of obligatory military call-up in 2013 before the removal of pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovych, which sparked the confrontation with Russia.

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  9. Very valid questions and comments here, both from Sol and the commenters.
    There certainly are reasons and 'excuses' in place to help Ukraine. Andrius Juozapaitis named them.

    On the other hand the question is are 'we' willing to pay the price for more involvement and then there is the question how much is already being done. Speculations in the news over here are that the low oil-price we have currently is meant as an indirect attack on Russia.

    Lastly, wile I by no means am an environmentalist, in fact I like many gas-guzzling machines way to much,.. from my car to jet-fighters, I still believe Europe should invest heavily in alternate energy sources and conservation. This might seem out of place in this discussion, but it is not. Europe is very, very dependent on Russian gas and Arab oil. Something that leads to a very weak position. Wile the US can, at least for a wile, can up its own production Europe as a whole can not. Complicating factor that most will not be aware of is that my country The Netherlands , which has substantial gas-reserves is dealing with earthquakes as a result of taking this gas out and on top of that our national gas company is deeply in bed with Russia to distribute Russian gas across Europe.

    Money rules, principle drools.

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  10. "The current crop of military leaders" is definitely a problem. The biggest beef I have with them is their acceptance, in Afghanistan, of the U.S. government's alliance with Pakistan while the latter is backing people who have been and are still killing U.S. troops.

    I look at this situation as part of the overall U.S. corruption problem which occurs at every level. Too many people (not all) are looking out for #1 above all, which is bad enough for civilians but unpardonable for military leaders who have, or should have, a great responsibility for those under them.

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  11. You boys all heard about that tragedy in Donetsk where the bus stop and trolley bus was hit by "unknown fire", many dead and wounded. It's start to stink...

    After I read the news I was wonder, city under fire, war around and city mass transit still working and taking people to work, not to mention it was a trolley bus, I was thinking most of the city is without power... it was just surrealistic.

    Then I think, shit a stray round from a artillery and second tragic event in days. It was not part of larger salvo like seppos shelling of checkpoint but still, civis kill is civis kill. But I start to wonder... it was a single round or more in very tight spread, not a fire from long range. The rounds ware not that powerful, no craters. Seppos say it was a mortar strike from Ukrainians...I think, maybe, mortar rounds do not create craters in asphalt or pavements in most cases or very small ones, well if that would be some bigger caliber it would made ones, but as there is not a single one... then smaller caliber?

    Then some things start to niggle me... wait, a mortar strike?! Mortars have limited range, where are the Ukrainians position? In what rage from explosion... most sources I check say that in straight line some 14-15km, that's way beyond mortar fire range, even if they use big 2S12 it had only some 7 km max range.

    So if that was a mortar strike... the Ukrainians are out of equation, they don't have the range... then who the fuck did that? Now there start to resurface some information's, I can't say that they are legit for as sake of media mess that accompany this conflict as you all know, but there in one interesting for now:

    - sources from the city, townsfolk heard a quad salvo before trolley bus was hit, that would be 2B9 Chaber mortar. Used by seppos...

    But there always is a reason of every action... so what? a propaganda one that show how civis die under Ukrainians art fire... or it's some kind of weird and sick "payback", sepos were catch as they shelling the civis checkpoint and kill people in bus so now let's show how "Ukrainians" did that and we even... we are not bad, they are doing the same... I don't know... fog of war there is too big.

    Info' can you cross information's about that attack in your sources?

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    1. http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2002075.html

      Here some photos and vids from the accident’s place are gathered. Reportedly these were at least three light mortar’s (about 82-mm) mines. At my take, it is correct – character of damages proves 82-mm mines effect. Who done it? I guess 50/50 – rebels and Ukrainians diversion group – both parties have reasons to do this and both active use light mortars as well. I’ve found no signs, obviously pointing on whose participants it can be.

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    2. I read some that diversion theory some time after the news appear about attack, of course it was from trolls that... I'm afraid, they try to be more Russian then you ever be info', you question many things... them, well if you put an article in RT that earth is flat they would the solid believers of that and if you argue with them you would became fascist, nazist, bandera man and... I think I once was called a vegetarian. I admit the last one was really hurtful.

      But to the meritum...

      "The Ukrainian truck ride from Ukrainian positions, unnoticed and not stooped by anyone. It ride in the middle of fully controlled by sepps city, stand near the bus stop, wait for the trolley bus to ride, put down a tarpaulin, shoot a salvo, then ride away... unnoticed and not stooped by anyone, not to mention nobody see one in the direction of the sun." A ghost rider.

      It's stinks for the mile info'...

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    3. @I think I once was called a vegetarian. I admit the last one was really hurtful. @
      Bgggg

      @ A ghost rider.@
      Nothing surprising, pan – Donetsk was a million-city before the rebellion, full control of the city in circumstances of close Ukrainians position is impossible, not to mention total turmoil among the rebels – too much of military detachments and half-criminal bands. No problem to sham a rebel’s unit and reach Donetsk – or trivial give a bribe on a relevant road-post.

      @It's stinks for the mile info'...@
      Agree, my main doubt rises from the fact that this diversion was alone – because main purpose (IMHO, of course) for usage this act for Ukrainians firstly can be generation of panic among Donetsk inhabitants. But you can’t reach the above said panic with three mortar’s mines firing – it must be series of different acts. But three mines at bus-station – is an excellent instrument in media-war and the rebels (with Russian journalists as well) are greatly more interested in this .

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    4. Yeah, the panic thing is weak... for fuck sake they shoot at that city every day, mortar here and there is nothing new. But it look like someone want to made this rather bloody... very bloody, maybe as you notice, for a camera. Shit, human life is cheap there.

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    5. Assuming that it was even targeted and not simply a cockup. Artillery rounds, even mortars, have a distressing tendency to wander off where they are not supposed to. Or it was just general harassment, they didn't care where the round landed, as long as it was within the city. The location might just have been a bonus.

      It's not like the players in this game are trained to very high standards, remember MH-17? "Shoot the military plane!!!... er oops.."

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    6. @Owl

      One round, yes... but not three in close formation. Someone specific target the bus stop... with the moment trolley bus stop there.

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  12. So we are going to train a battalion of men in a couple of months... Meanwhile, Russia has probably trained a mechanised division or two from refugees and volunteers from eastern Ukraine.

    I guess that battalion can guard the Ukrainian oligarchs flight as Kiev falls around summer...

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  13. Rumors go that rebels are surrounding Ukrainians in Debal’cevo
    http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/wesservic/36941460/507224/507224_original.pnghttp://ic.pics.livejournal.com/wesservic/36941460/507224/507224_original.png

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    1. Only rumors, they try that for couple of day's now... they try to push from north on Trojić but Ukrainian defense is hold, no town/village was captured by seppos near the city. But situation is not good, Ukrainians need to reinforce that region. Seppos don't have enough forces to really push there... or there is not order from Kremlin to do this.

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    2. http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/arguendi/47553507/876419/876419_original.png

      Zhuchkovsky (a famous Russian ultra-nationalist, fighting for rebels and organizing their supply with Russian ultra- nationalistic circles) said that he “drink tea” (on Russian slang this phrase usual means “drink vodka”) with some RF’s “supervisor” in Donbass who said “Center” not against rebels’ attack.
      But – time will show.
      By the way, Zhuchkovsky said there are two types of supervisors – from GRU and «АП» (usually this abbreviation means “President’s administration”). If it is close to Truth so I have a next evidence in favor my theory I recently told to you, pan.

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    3. Rebels report they captured control over Krasniy Partizan village
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW2kBecduis

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    4. Yep looks like they did, some really heavy fighting there. Ukrainians retreat.

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  14. Rebels report they took ruins of the dispatchers’’ tower in the Donetsk airport.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7WszPmp6Y0#t=162

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  15. Looks like Russia is sending new toys for testing in Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_imMdb2gg

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