“Everything hinges on John Boehner,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a pro-defense Republican with the American Enterprise Institute (and a member of the Breaking Defense board of contributors).And then this...
“Here’s the bottom line: it’s now or never,” she said. “If Boehner can do it, there will be abudget deal [to adjust the Budget Control Act spending caps]. If this is not cleaned up before his successor takes office, there will be a year-long CR” — a Continuing Resolution — and, probably, a government shutdown.
Ultimately, the outcome depends on Boehner, a Democratic Hill staffer said, echoing the Republican Eaglen. “If one assumes Speaker Boehner wants to make some kind of debt ceiling/short-term budget deal before he leaves, this delay might actually help,” the staffer said. “He would need Democratic support to pass it, but that is possible depending on what is in any such agreement….. On the other hand, if he is not going to try to make a deal before departing, this delay increases the chances of a debt ceiling fail of some kind and/or a government shutdown in December.”I AM AMAZED at the stupidity of these analyst.
Democratic votes are fine, said Eaglen. “Any government spending deal that is not a long-term CR was never going to pass with Freedom Caucus support anyway — not last month when they had to get through the short-term CR, and not in December when this CR expires,” she said. “Like the Medicare ‘doc fix,’ a budget deal is going to pass with Democratic support, period.”
“Knowing the pragmatist that Speaker Boehner has always been, and the desire by [Senate Majority Leader] McConnell to keep his own Senate majority and win back the White House,” she went on, “the chaos in the house GOP may actually increase the likelihood that these two will seek to cut a deal with Obama as quickly as possible and let Boehner fall on the sword.”
Boehner was pushed out because he cut too many deals and refused to fight. Now they believe that Boehner could cut one last deal and it not have any long lasting repercussions? That's just insane.
This is gonna get good. Boehner isn't in a strong position and in my estimation the chances of a Continuing Resolution just went from 50-50 to about an 85% probability.
But lets play devil's advocate. If Boehner does the unthinkable then I guarantee Republicans will stay home and the Dems will win the presidency. The problem then? Dems will slash the defense budget long term, instead of the short term pain being applied by conservatives to right the ship.