via Sic Semper Tyrannis
It appears to me that Kerry and Erdogan now realise that the latest Syrian offensive signals the beginning of the end for their fictional moderate, democratic rebels who are not really jihadists, just misunderstood.I watched as the Russians announced SU-35's were going to Syria. I listened to my readers talking about a new offensive that was moving at almost breakneck speed. Listened and read news reports about first a humanitarian crisis and then collapsed peace talks.
The Peace talks? They remind me of Napoleon III trying to "negotiate" with Moltke and Bismarck after the French were defeated at Sedan. What cards do the rebels have to play - "The gratitude of the Syrian people?".
What Kerry and Erdogan are now probably doing is contemplating what a reunified, jihadist free, Syria is going to look like along with a resurgent, sorry, I mean "emboldened", Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. My opinion is that they are going to remake the Middle East to the detriment of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The question then becomes whether Turkey and the U.S. are going to permit that. There are suggestions on another thread that Turkey may try to take military action in Syria under the "responsibility to protect" mantra. I do not see that as a winning military strategy unless the U.S. and NATO can be prevailed upon to support such a venture. Are we stupid enough to do that?
I even followed reports from Russia warning that the Turks were staging for a military intervention into Syria.
Any idea what this all means?
SST talks about a move to the detriment of Israel. I don't know if I fully agree with that. The Israelis have been carrying out airstrikes cross border with no interference from the Russians. It seems to me that they have military professionals that can determine who they need to fight together and keep from stepping on each others toes while doing it. This also indicates to me that the Russians have the Syrian Dictator firmly under the thumb. I don't think he'd be too pleased to have IDF aircraft routinely invading his airspace.
But that leaves the move to station SU-35's. I really should have zeroed in on those early reports of the Turks planning an incursion, the Saudi's talking about a US led coalition to rescue the non-combatants in Syria and the collapsed peace talks.
The Russians are setting up to block any "no fly zone" over Syria. They just took the easy move off the table and if there is an escalation then it will be solidly in the camp of the GCC/Turkey/US.
Of course I could easily be wrong (please tell me where you disagree) but one thing is certain. This thing in Syria is reaching a "new" critical stage.