The United States has now gone a record 10 straight years without 3 percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.I consider this another sign that my contention that the US never really came out of recession is valid. The way that the govt now determines employment, inflation, etc...is so silly that the numbers can't be relied on as a real indicator of what's really happening. Not convinced? There's more! via MSNBC.
The BEA has calculated GDP for each year going back to 1929 and it has calculated the inflation-adjusted annual change in GDP (in constant 2009 dollars) from 1930 forward.
In the 85 years for which BEA has calculated the annual change in real GDP there is only one ten-year stretch—2006 through 2015—when the annual growth in real GDP never hit 3 percent. During the last ten years, real annual growth in GDP peaked in 2006 at 2.7 percent. It has never been that high again, according to the BEA.
The risk of the global economy falling into a recession is rising as fundamentals remain poor, analysts at Citigroup said in a note Wednesday.Yeah. Even the big boys like Citi are saying that a global recession is becoming more and more probable. Oh and just for the uninformed. This is what we get open source. We don't know what they're telling their perferred customers behind closed doors. You want to keep big accounts? You tell them the real deal WAAAAY ahead of time so that they can get out of bad positions. Still not convinced? How about this from Yahoo.
"We are currently in a highly precarious environment for global growth and asset markets after two to three years of relative calm," Citigroup said, noting that global growth was "unusually weak" in the fourth quarter at around 2.0 percent on-year.
"The most recent deterioration in the global outlook is due to a moderate worsening in the prospects for the advanced economies, a large increase in the uncertainty about the advanced economies' outlook (notably for the U.S.) and a tightening in financial conditions everywhere," the bank said.
Global economic growth concerns, particularly in emerging markets, have weighed on the S&P 500 so far in 2016 and have led to speculation that the United States could be on the verge of a recession. In a new report, Wells Fargo analyst John Silvia discussed the factors impacting the firm’s various recession prediction models.Think about it folks.
Although Wells Fargo’s official Probit model puts recession risk at only 23.5 percent in the next six months, the firm also monitors seven additional models, which estimate recession probability based on a number of different sectors of the U.S. economy.
Currently, the highest risk indicated by any of the eight models is 76.2 percent (based on IP, S&P 500 Index and the CRB Index) and the lowest risk is only 3.6 percent (based on yield spreads). Overall, the average of the eight models indicates a 37.3 percent recession risk.
The stars are aligning for either a summer or Oct surprise to the downside economically. If I didn't know better its as if destiny is doing its best fro Trump to win...because if this turns into an economic election then he wins by landslide.