Tensions continue to mount in the South China Sea and with Beijing increasingly desperate to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the wake of The Hague ruling the possibility for a conflict in one of Asia's most dangerous flash points has never been greater.This is HUGE!
The People’s Republic of China may soon look to fundamentally alter the status-quo in the South China Sea by seizing the disputed Scarborough Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines – a move that Washington considers a "red line" with President Obama warning of "serious consequences" in March if China attempted to reclaim the land.
An article in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post raises the specter of the potential incursion quoting "a source familiar with the matter" detailing that Beijing would not look to reclaim the territory before hosting the G-20 next month, but could begin construction efforts on the land mass sometime between September and when Americans go to the polls in November.
The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues."
The potential move is seen by security analysts as a way for China to counteract the recent ruling by The Hague arbitration court and effectively nullify any possible claims to the important body of water. The ruling came after the Philippines submitted for unilateral arbitration, at the behest of the Obama administration, with the court ruling against China’s historic claim to the area citing in large part the Scarborough Shoal.
If China does make this move then the balance of power will not only shift, but any credibility the US has in the Pacific will evaporate. More importantly this is an indication that the Chinese are sensing weakness...not only politically but militarily.
The big fight with China is coming...and we're so far from ready that we've already lost.