Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Taliban attack Marine Patrol Base

The 31st MEU during PHIBLEX 2012

Royal Navy vindicated...Falklands endangered.


Wow.

Hope those Typhoons are capable in the maritime strike arena, cause what Sharkey was worried about appears to be happening...the Falklands appear to be endangered, check this out via BlackFive from Assoluta Tranquilita...

Argentina has launched a naval campaign to isolate the Falkland Islands that has seen it detain Spanish fishing vessels on suspicion of breaking the country’s “blockade” of the seas around the British territories.

Read the whole thing but a couple of things are obvious.  Weakness will be exploited.  Its guaranteed.

Update:

For the doubters we have this from the Telegraph.

Argentine patrol commanders carrying out interceptions near the South American coast told Spanish captains they were in violation of Argentina’s “legal” blockade of sea channels to the Falklands.
The warning has been backed up in a letter to Aetinape, the Spanish fishing vessels association from the Argentine embassy in Madrid warning boats in the area that “Falklands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands and adjoining maritime spaces are an integral part of the Argentine territory.”

Monday, December 05, 2011

F-35 News...

Nothing I wanted to read about but I'll post what popped up....

The first carrier variant test aircraft for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter takes off on its 100th test flight Nov. 29 with Marine Corps test pilot Lt. Col. Matthew Taylor at the controls. (Photo courtesy of Lockheed Martin)

The photo is a press release by NAVAIR and the following statement is from the JSF Program Office...
JPO STATEMENT ON DOD AND LOCKHEED MARTIN REACHING A TENTATIVE F-35 UCA AGREEMENT
The Department of Defense and the Lockheed Martin Corporation have reached a tentative agreement on key terms of the 5th F-35 Low Rate Initial Production contract, known as LRIP 5, which will enable award of an Undefinitized Contract Action (UCA). The key terms include agreement on a fixed-price type contract vehicle and a concurrency clause where DOD and Lockheed Martin will share responsibility on costs for concurrency changes -- modification costs associated with changes discovered during development. The UCA award will allow Lockheed Martin and its suppliers to begin production of the LRIP 5 aircraft and bill for incurred costs. The exact value of the contract and number of aircraft procured will be announced through the normal DOD contract announcement process.
What I wanted to hear was a clarifying statement from the good Admiral.  I think everyone following the F-35 wants to hear what he has to say.

But alas, he's crawled under a rock and is no where to be found.

Pathetic.

ISAF statement on Iran's drone shoot-down...


ISAF speaks on the Iranian "drone shoot-down"...

KABUL, Afghanistan (December 4, 2011) – "The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a US unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status."
Certainly makes sense...but notice what's been left out.  The type of UAV and the cause of the loss of control.

There is alot more to this story than meets the eye.

Sunday, December 04, 2011

What now Lt?


The Marine Gazette back in the day ran tactical problems in their magazine.  The problems were based on historical situations that required some out of the box thinking, inspirational leadership and a bit of risk taking.

They always ended with the question to the reader...What now Lt after presenting a seemingly impossible situation to be solved.

You had to tune in the following month to get the "Marine Corps" answer to the problem.

Well despite some thinking that I'm being hysterical in my thinking that the F-35 is in trouble not from its critics but from the military establishment...and by extension budget cutters, other airplane manufacturers etc....its time for the Marine Corps as a whole to say collectively.

What now?

A couple of things not to do...

1.  Do NOT buy Super Hornets.  An interim jet will quickly become a good enough jet if we fall into that trap.
2.  Do NOT slep F/A-18C's and D's.  Pouring good money after bad in an attempt to keep elderly airframes viable especially when spare parts will be difficult to obtain is a suckers bet.
3.  Do NOT abandon the aviation neck down campaign.

Now a couple of things TO do...

1.  Do explore the possibility of upgrading the engines on the Harriers.
2.  Do explore the possibility of avionics upgrades to the Harrier.
3.  Do explore the possibility of fitting an AESA radar on the Harrier.

A couple of things to investigate as cheaply as possible...

1.  Is it possible to mount a bigger, more aerodynamically viable wing to the Harrier?  One that will increase range and speed?
2.  Does it make sense to convert the two seat training models into FAC's?
3.  Does a stretched Harrier make sense?

I still believe the F-35B will enter service but I'm becoming more and more convinced that it will be in the 2020 time period and not 2014 or 2015 as had been hoped.

Fat chance on getting early slots on the production line too.  The USAF will be in need of replacements as much as the USMC.

So my question to you all is what now?

Note:

You can bet big bucks that some of the allies will drop out now with the excuse being that they can't wait till 2020 to replace airframes.  Gripen will be laughing all the way to the bank...Typhoon and Rafael will still be priced out of the market and Super Hornet MIGHT pick up some orders but for our European allies, you can bet that the push to buy European will be as strong there as it is for our defense department to buy US.  The most interesting ally to watch in this whole episode will be the Canadians.

That's why this is such a huge deal.  Just a couple of weeks ago the Canadian Defense Minister came out fully in support of the F-35 (as did the Australian) and not only that but so did the US SecDef.

Now the Program Manager just cut the legs from underneath not only our guy but the guys in other countries.


If this wasn't a planned announcement then we should see a walk back on Monday.  If it was planned then we should see a clarification and amplification on Monday.

Either way Monday should be interesting.

Saturday, December 03, 2011

Game over?

Ok, lets frame this up.

First we have this blurb on ARES by the Program Manager of the JSF project.
"The analyzed hot spots that have arisen in the last 12 months or so in the program have surprised us at the amount of change and at the cost," Vice Adm. David Venlet said in an interview at his office near the Pentagon. "Most of them are little ones, but when you bundle them all up and package them and look at where they are in the airplane and how hard they are to get at after you buy the jet, the cost burden of that is what sucks the wind out of your lungs."

"I believe it's wise to sort of temper production for a while here until we get some of these heavy years of learning under our belt and get that managed right. And then when we've got most of that known and we've got the management of the change activity better in hand, then we will be in a better position to ramp up production."
Take it in.

That's not Sweetman playing with words.

That's the fucking program manager.

But let's break it down a bit...
"Most of them are little ones, but when you bundle them all up and package them and look at where they are in the airplane and how hard they are to get at after you buy the jet, the cost burden of that is what sucks the wind out of your lungs."
Wow.

After all the fantastic performance that the F-35 has been having lately, I've been wondering why they haven't shoved it off probation.  I know this is part of the development track but dang.  You have this guy talking about "sucks the wind out of your lungs"....that's not good.

A story appeared on Aviation Week that stated that the unit cost of the F-35B was 111 million dollars.  Thats right where you want this bad boy to be and you can expect the cost to come down.  But the repair bill is looking like a monster.

If that isn't bad enough then we have this statement...
"I believe it's wise to sort of temper production for a while here until we get some of these heavy years of learning under our belt and get that managed right. And then when we've got most of that known and we've got the management of the change activity better in hand, then we will be in a better position to ramp up production."
Grunt translation.

We fucked this up.

This program is fucked up beyond recognition. 

We need to get our bearings, get ourselves sorted out and then we can continue to march.

I hope I'm wrong.

Geez I HOPE I'M WRONG.

But that's what I read this guy saying.  I've read Elements of Power's take on this but I keep coming back to the Admiral's words.

"...temper production for a while here until we get some of these heavy years of learning under our belt and get managed right..."

The F-35 appears to be fucked.  If you disagree (and on this one I'd love to be wrong) then hit me up.