Thanks to Joe and William for the information...
If you're smart, and if you're into military matters then you need to broaden your horizon and start watching the economy of both friends, enemies and frenemies.
Exhibit Number One. via Yahoo.com
In a series of TV interviews from party headquarters, Abe said his top priority was the economy. "Economy first," he told national broadcaster NHK, adding that he would also tackle other major issues, including national security.
The U.S. government hopes Abe will be able to win passage of a series of bills needed to expand Japan's military role, so that it can play a bigger part in their alliance. A heated debate is expected when parliament takes up the legislation, likely after local elections in April.
My read on this? The economy is a worry for the Japanese people. Its a worry for Americans and Europeans. The Chinese are concerned and so are the Russians. With oil hitting new lows on an almost daily basis for the past month, economic factors are not intertwining with economic conditions in ways that we haven't seen since before the 2nd World War. Keep an eye on the Middle East, Africa, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina etc...
But wait you're thinking. I've been predicting that globalization would collapse so I should be happy! Wrong. The best case scenario would have been a planned unwinding of that bastardized economic house of cards. Plunging oil prices points to future chaos. Which leads me to this...
Exhibit Number Two.
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The white bars track the us treasury 10 year yield. Notice how we are heading back to the lows of the move from 2012 when the Fed launched QE3 to try to get more inflation in the system. Basically the slowdown in China plus recessions in Japan and Europe are driving the world towards deflation. Scary scenario. |
Between the slowdown in the US, China, Europe (with their biggest economy, Germany, in recession), S. Europe (including Italy, Greece, Spain...and perhaps suprisingly France) on the verge of a meltdown, and Russia's economy basically imploding right before our eyes things are heading toward chaos sometime early next year.
I've been chatting with my financial guy.
At first he called me crazy for prepping and thought that I was missing out on a tremendous opportunity by not being in the market now.
Over the course of the year it was a furious debate. Last week he hit me that we were in the 5th or 6th inning of a bull market. Toward the end of the week he hit me with the above chart, told me that if my house still had a mortgage that I should ask the broker at what level it makes sense to refinance. These are the exact words that he left me with....
I've been bullish for a while as you know and am now getting pretty beared up. The fulldeflation scenario is playing out, as shown by the collapsing yield on the 10 year treasury.
What does this have to do with a defense blog?
First its a warning to my readers. When financial analyst are privately telling relatives and friends that things are about to get shaky then you should pay attention.
But on to the military thing. I've stated that the F-35 is in a death spiral. I've predicted that the Marine Corps isn't being honest about the production of the ACV 1.1.
I believe more than ever I'm right. Additionally I think we're headed toward that nightmare scenario of the US Army going down to 420,000 Soldiers and the USMC hitting 150,000.
Long story short? We're probably looking at the Great Recession part 2 in March or April....just enough time for all the fat cats to get their money into safety, out of the market and to sell real estate to the pigeons at an inflated price....while getting set up to buy it all back at greatly depressed prices. You heard it here first.